Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 81% market-implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination during late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid constitutional transition, backed by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established him as the incumbent with institutional continuity. Other listed figures, including interim council members such as Alireza Arafi, saw brief consideration but lack comparable recent momentum. Low-probability alternatives reflect historical speculation or exile opposition without evidence of near-term shifts. The market implies continuity absent major health, internal, or geopolitical disruptions before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?
ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?
মোজতবা খামেনেই 81.0%
রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই 4.9%
রেজা পাহলাভি 3.3%
আলিরেজা আরাফি 2.5%
$38,480,133 Vol.
$38,480,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
মোজতবা খামেনেই
81%
রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই
5%
রেজা পাহলাভি
3%
আলিরেজা আরাফি
2%
হাসান খোমেনি
1%
মোহাম্মদ-বাঘের ঘালিবাফ
1%
আহমদ বাহিদি
1%
মাসউদ পেজেশকিয়ান
<1%
আব্বাস আরাঘচি
<1%
মুহাম্মাদ মীরবাকেরি
<1%
হাসান রুহানি
<1%
সাদেক লারিজানি
<1%
হাসান শরিয়তমাদারি
<1%
মরিয়ম রাজাভি
<1%
মাসউদ রাজাভি
<1%
সেইয়েদ হোসেইন মুসাভিয়ান
<1%
রেজা পিরজাদেহ
<1%
নাভিদ শোমালী
<1%
মুস্তাফা হিজরি
<1%
আলী মতাহারী
<1%
গোলাম-আলী হাদ্দাদ-আদেল
<1%
মোস্তাফা পৌরমুহাম্মাদি
<1%
সাদেগ মাহসুলি
<1%
সাঈদ জালিলি
<1%
মাহমুদ আহমাদিনেজাদ
<1%
মোহাম্মদ খাতামি
<1%
মোহসেন আরাকি
<1%
নাসির হোসেইনি
<1%
আহমাদ হোসেইনি খোরাসানি
<1%
আলী আসগর হেজাযি
<1%
মোজতবা খামেনেই 81.0%
রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই 4.9%
রেজা পাহলাভি 3.3%
আলিরেজা আরাফি 2.5%
$38,480,133 Vol.
$38,480,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
মোজতবা খামেনেই
$5,955,941 Vol.
81%
রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই
$1,142,543 Vol.
5%
রেজা পাহলাভি
$666,584 Vol.
3%
আলিরেজা আরাফি
$2,311,330 Vol.
2%
হাসান খোমেনি
$1,422,539 Vol.
1%
মোহাম্মদ-বাঘের ঘালিবাফ
$913,237 Vol.
1%
আহমদ বাহিদি
$772,460 Vol.
1%
মাসউদ পেজেশকিয়ান
$1,014,020 Vol.
<1%
আব্বাস আরাঘচি
$830,953 Vol.
<1%
মুহাম্মাদ মীরবাকেরি
$436,936 Vol.
<1%
হাসান রুহানি
$933,765 Vol.
<1%
সাদেক লারিজানি
$533,747 Vol.
<1%
হাসান শরিয়তমাদারি
$3,143,745 Vol.
<1%
মরিয়ম রাজাভি
$804,565 Vol.
<1%
মাসউদ রাজাভি
$396,958 Vol.
<1%
সেইয়েদ হোসেইন মুসাভিয়ান
$3,693,627 Vol.
<1%
রেজা পিরজাদেহ
$145,149 Vol.
<1%
নাভিদ শোমালী
$211,003 Vol.
<1%
মুস্তাফা হিজরি
$198,933 Vol.
<1%
আলী মতাহারী
$835,627 Vol.
<1%
গোলাম-আলী হাদ্দাদ-আদেল
$432,942 Vol.
<1%
মোস্তাফা পৌরমুহাম্মাদি
$3,346,683 Vol.
<1%
সাদেগ মাহসুলি
$239,018 Vol.
<1%
সাঈদ জালিলি
$384,430 Vol.
<1%
মাহমুদ আহমাদিনেজাদ
$1,101,776 Vol.
<1%
মোহাম্মদ খাতামি
$5,191,445 Vol.
<1%
মোহসেন আরাকি
$281,429 Vol.
<1%
নাসির হোসেইনি
$254,276 Vol.
<1%
আহমাদ হোসেইনি খোরাসানি
$306,512 Vol.
<1%
আলী আসগর হেজাযি
$341,100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 81% market-implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination during late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid constitutional transition, backed by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established him as the incumbent with institutional continuity. Other listed figures, including interim council members such as Alireza Arafi, saw brief consideration but lack comparable recent momentum. Low-probability alternatives reflect historical speculation or exile opposition without evidence of near-term shifts. The market implies continuity absent major health, internal, or geopolitical disruptions before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
ভলিউম
$38,480,133শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 81% market-implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination during late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid constitutional transition, backed by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established him as the incumbent with institutional continuity. Other listed figures, including interim council members such as Alireza Arafi, saw brief consideration but lack comparable recent momentum. Low-probability alternatives reflect historical speculation or exile opposition without evidence of near-term shifts. The market implies continuity absent major health, internal, or geopolitical disruptions before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
ভলিউম
$38,480,133শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 81% market-implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026 because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination during late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid constitutional transition, backed by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established him as the incumbent with institutional continuity. Other listed figures, including interim council members such as Alireza Arafi, saw brief consideration but lack comparable recent momentum. Low-probability alternatives reflect historical speculation or exile opposition without evidence of near-term shifts. The market implies continuity absent major health, internal, or geopolitical disruptions before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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