**Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island continue to shape trader views on control of these Persian Gulf assets.** The 2026 conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and prompted Iran's effective closure of the strait by early March, disrupted roughly 20% of global oil trade and drove Brent crude from around $71 per barrel in late February to peaks above $120 amid supply fears. Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude exports, faced US precision strikes in March targeting military sites while oil infrastructure was largely spared, with no ground seizure occurring despite reported considerations of occupation or blockade as leverage. Subsequent ceasefires, memoranda of understanding, and intermittent strikes through July have kept the islands under Iranian control, though elevated shipping insurance, tanker traffic declines, and energy market volatility underscore the islands' strategic value. Key upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic or military developments that could alter the risk premium in oil benchmarks or prompt shifts in control probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
7%
September 30
14%
$1,562 Vol.
August 31
$1,542 Vol.
7%
September 30
$20 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island continue to shape trader views on control of these Persian Gulf assets.** The 2026 conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and prompted Iran's effective closure of the strait by early March, disrupted roughly 20% of global oil trade and drove Brent crude from around $71 per barrel in late February to peaks above $120 amid supply fears. Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude exports, faced US precision strikes in March targeting military sites while oil infrastructure was largely spared, with no ground seizure occurring despite reported considerations of occupation or blockade as leverage. Subsequent ceasefires, memoranda of understanding, and intermittent strikes through July have kept the islands under Iranian control, though elevated shipping insurance, tanker traffic declines, and energy market volatility underscore the islands' strategic value. Key upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic or military developments that could alter the risk premium in oil benchmarks or prompt shifts in control probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,562শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island continue to shape trader views on control of these Persian Gulf assets.** The 2026 conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and prompted Iran's effective closure of the strait by early March, disrupted roughly 20% of global oil trade and drove Brent crude from around $71 per barrel in late February to peaks above $120 amid supply fears. Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude exports, faced US precision strikes in March targeting military sites while oil infrastructure was largely spared, with no ground seizure occurring despite reported considerations of occupation or blockade as leverage. Subsequent ceasefires, memoranda of understanding, and intermittent strikes through July have kept the islands under Iranian control, though elevated shipping insurance, tanker traffic declines, and energy market volatility underscore the islands' strategic value. Key upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic or military developments that could alter the risk premium in oil benchmarks or prompt shifts in control probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$1,562শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island continue to shape trader views on control of these Persian Gulf assets.** The 2026 conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and prompted Iran's effective closure of the strait by early March, disrupted roughly 20% of global oil trade and drove Brent crude from around $71 per barrel in late February to peaks above $120 amid supply fears. Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude exports, faced US precision strikes in March targeting military sites while oil infrastructure was largely spared, with no ground seizure occurring despite reported considerations of occupation or blockade as leverage. Subsequent ceasefires, memoranda of understanding, and intermittent strikes through July have kept the islands under Iranian control, though elevated shipping insurance, tanker traffic declines, and energy market volatility underscore the islands' strategic value. Key upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic or military developments that could alter the risk premium in oil benchmarks or prompt shifts in control probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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