Recent indirect talks between US and Iran officials, mediated by Qatar in New York, produced minimal progress on ceasefire terms and a broader framework covering Strait of Hormuz shipping and related issues. Separate meetings with mediators followed rejection of Iran's latest proposal, leaving both sides in a diplomatic stalemate after prior short-lived ceasefires in April and June. Ongoing conflict, now in its seventh month, and US midterm elections scheduled for November continue to shape timelines for any senior-level engagement, direct or mediated. Traders weigh these stalled negotiations against the risk of renewed combat or new diplomatic openings before year-end.