US-Iran tensions since February 2026 have centered on a naval blockade restricting Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island, the primary terminal handling the bulk of Tehran’s oil shipments, alongside targeted US strikes on Iranian military assets such as air defenses and missile sites on the island. Iranian authorities have conducted air-defense readiness tests and reported intermittent or limited tanker loading activity in November amid the blockade, with satellite data showing prolonged periods of empty berths and vessels used for storage rather than sustained exports. No verified ground operations or transfer of primary governmental or military control have occurred, and trader consensus reflected in low yes probabilities assigns limited near-term likelihood of seizure despite strategic discussions around the island’s role in oil flows and Hormuz access. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and any escalation in strikes remain the main variables that could influence assessments through year-end.