The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025-2026 nationwide protests and U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 83.5% trader consensus against collapse by June 2027. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, have maintained cohesion and conducted sustained crackdowns that limited unrest to fragmented demonstrations without elite defections or military fractures. A rapid leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei or interim structures preserved institutional continuity, while ongoing sanctions, port blockades, and economic strain have not yet triggered the scale of defections or coordinated opposition required for rapid regime change. Diplomatic proposals through mediators and incremental campus or economic protests reflect persistent pressure but also the regime's capacity to manage short-term threats. Historical precedent of surviving prior uprisings reinforces the view that structural barriers to swift overthrow remain high over the next nine months.