Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continue to drive elevated crude oil prices, with WTI trading near $90-93 per barrel and Brent around $105 as of late September 2026. Supply concerns over partial Strait of Hormuz disruptions and tanker attacks have supported a roughly 45% year-over-year gain, though recovering Middle East exports—reaching 12.8 million barrels per day in September—have capped further spikes. Weak Chinese refining demand and high inventories have offset some bullish momentum, keeping prices well below the 2008 all-time high of $147.27. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether diplomatic progress or intensified hostilities will shift the balance before year-end resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include inventory reports, FOMC signals on broader risk appetite, and any breakthroughs in Qatari-mediated talks.