Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the capture of Mocha and Perim Island in mid-September 2026, have sharply curtailed tanker and commodity vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily counts falling to single digits in some reports amid a 60-70% decline from earlier levels. This escalation, set against the backdrop of disrupted Strait of Hormuz flows, has driven up Saudi crude loadings via alternative routes, elevated freight rates, and contributed to Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. Shipping firms continue selective transits rather than a full halt, reflecting risk pricing in elevated insurance and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi interdiction attempts, Saudi or coalition responses, and daily IMF PortWatch or Kpler transit data that could test thresholds for a complete daily shutdown. Trader sentiment on a zero-transit day reflects these supply-chain frictions and the narrow but persistent gap between current volumes and full closure.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
নতুন
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
37%
December 31
51%
$24 Vol.
September 30
$24 Vol.
37%
December 31
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the capture of Mocha and Perim Island in mid-September 2026, have sharply curtailed tanker and commodity vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily counts falling to single digits in some reports amid a 60-70% decline from earlier levels. This escalation, set against the backdrop of disrupted Strait of Hormuz flows, has driven up Saudi crude loadings via alternative routes, elevated freight rates, and contributed to Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. Shipping firms continue selective transits rather than a full halt, reflecting risk pricing in elevated insurance and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi interdiction attempts, Saudi or coalition responses, and daily IMF PortWatch or Kpler transit data that could test thresholds for a complete daily shutdown. Trader sentiment on a zero-transit day reflects these supply-chain frictions and the narrow but persistent gap between current volumes and full closure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$24শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the capture of Mocha and Perim Island in mid-September 2026, have sharply curtailed tanker and commodity vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily counts falling to single digits in some reports amid a 60-70% decline from earlier levels. This escalation, set against the backdrop of disrupted Strait of Hormuz flows, has driven up Saudi crude loadings via alternative routes, elevated freight rates, and contributed to Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. Shipping firms continue selective transits rather than a full halt, reflecting risk pricing in elevated insurance and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi interdiction attempts, Saudi or coalition responses, and daily IMF PortWatch or Kpler transit data that could test thresholds for a complete daily shutdown. Trader sentiment on a zero-transit day reflects these supply-chain frictions and the narrow but persistent gap between current volumes and full closure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ভলিউম
$24শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the capture of Mocha and Perim Island in mid-September 2026, have sharply curtailed tanker and commodity vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily counts falling to single digits in some reports amid a 60-70% decline from earlier levels. This escalation, set against the backdrop of disrupted Strait of Hormuz flows, has driven up Saudi crude loadings via alternative routes, elevated freight rates, and contributed to Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel. Shipping firms continue selective transits rather than a full halt, reflecting risk pricing in elevated insurance and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi interdiction attempts, Saudi or coalition responses, and daily IMF PortWatch or Kpler transit data that could test thresholds for a complete daily shutdown. Trader sentiment on a zero-transit day reflects these supply-chain frictions and the narrow but persistent gap between current volumes and full closure.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা