Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডহ্যাঁ
$17,820,836 Vol.
$17,820,836 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$17,820,836 Vol.
$17,820,836 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
ভলিউম
$17,820,836শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$17,820,836শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা