The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. Recent leadership transitions following the 2025-2026 conflicts, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and subsequent military and security council adjustments in 2026, have maintained institutional continuity. Ongoing diplomatic messaging and military posturing in the Strait of Hormuz further reflect operational control rather than fragmentation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডহ্যাঁ
7% সম্ভাবনা
$24,665,118 Vol.
$24,665,118 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
7% সম্ভাবনা
$24,665,118 Vol.
$24,665,118 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. Recent leadership transitions following the 2025-2026 conflicts, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and subsequent military and security council adjustments in 2026, have maintained institutional continuity. Ongoing diplomatic messaging and military posturing in the Strait of Hormuz further reflect operational control rather than fragmentation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
ভলিউম
$24,665,118শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. Recent leadership transitions following the 2025-2026 conflicts, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and subsequent military and security council adjustments in 2026, have maintained institutional continuity. Ongoing diplomatic messaging and military posturing in the Strait of Hormuz further reflect operational control rather than fragmentation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$24,665,118শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. Recent leadership transitions following the 2025-2026 conflicts, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and subsequent military and security council adjustments in 2026, have maintained institutional continuity. Ongoing diplomatic messaging and military posturing in the Strait of Hormuz further reflect operational control rather than fragmentation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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