Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 election show Likud averaging 22–23 seats, placing the party in a tight race with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar for the largest share while Benjamin Netanyahu’s broader right-religious bloc hovers near 51–53 seats. Neither the pro-Netanyahu nor opposition Zionist camp consistently reaches the 61-seat threshold needed for a majority, reflecting persistent fragmentation and the impact of undecided voters plus smaller parties near the 3.25% electoral threshold. Variations across pollsters—ranging from 18–19 seats in some surveys to 27–28 in others—stem from differing assessments of security concerns, coalition fatigue after the post-October 2023 conflicts, and competition from centrist lists. This distribution underpins trader consensus favoring the 20–24 seat band as the most probable outcome.