Incumbent KMT Mayor Chiang Wan-an holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Taipei mayoral race ahead of the November 28, 2026 vote, reflecting traders' emphasis on his incumbency advantage, established name recognition, and the party's historical strength in the capital despite a competitive field. DPP Legislator Puma Shen sits at 18.1% amid recent polling showing the pair statistically tied or narrowly separated, with Shen advancing district-level campaigning, commuting and youth-focused proposals, and efforts to mobilize younger and independent voters. Minor candidates including Kuo Hsi register below 1%, consistent with their limited registration support and negligible polling. The market pricing underscores trader consensus on structural factors like party alignment and turnout patterns outweighing short-term survey fluctuations in this six-candidate contest.