Trump remains in office with roughly 19 months left in his term as of mid-2026, and congressional majorities have blocked removal efforts despite scattered Democratic calls for impeachment tied to executive actions in the Iran conflict and other disputes. Successful removal requires House approval followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction vote, a threshold unmet in prior attempts and structurally difficult without major shifts in Republican support. No credible reports indicate resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or disqualifying health events. Midterm election dynamics and ongoing legislative priorities further reduce near-term exit risks. Traders price these institutional and political barriers as making departure before 2027 highly improbable, consistent with the 94.5% implied probability on “No.”