Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s 13 September 2026 general election show the Social Democrats leading at roughly 30–32 percent, placing the centre-left bloc ahead of the incumbent right-wing Tidö government. This sustained advantage for Magdalena Andersson, the party’s leader and former prime minister, underpins trader consensus that she will form the next government. Ulf Kristersson’s coalition has seen its support erode since 2022, with current projections leaving it short of a majority even with Sweden Democrats backing. Low probabilities assigned to other listed figures reflect their parties’ weaker standings or limited realistic paths to the premiership under prevailing electoral math and coalition patterns. No major late-campaign shifts have altered these baseline trends in recent weeks.