Kamala Harris announces she will not run for 2028 Democratic nomination

Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%

Harris publicly confirmed she will not seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, removing her from contention and causing her market price to fall from 9% to 6% as traders adjusted expectations.

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.

Kamala Harris rebrands and relaunches campaign social media accounts

Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%

Kamala Harris relaunched and rebranded her campaign social media accounts, signaling renewed efforts to maintain political relevance and possibly influence the 2028 Democratic nomination race. This move was noted in the market but had limited impact on her odds.

Gavin Newsom criticizes European leaders and Trump diplomacy at Davos forum

Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%

Newsom's blunt remarks at the World Economic Forum criticizing global leaders' handling of Trump and calling for stronger American leadership increased his national visibility and bolstered his presidential prospects.

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance, increasing governor's power

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Governor Newsom proposed reforms to California's K-12 education system, aiming to reduce the elected superintendent's role and increase the State Board of Education's and governor's control. This policy move highlighted Newsom's leadership style and ambitions, impacting his market standing.

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends California governor campaign

Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%

Swalwell's campaign collapse following sexual assault allegations led to his withdrawal from the governor's race, reducing competition and shifting market support among Democratic candidates.

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.

Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, drawing criticism from women's rights advocates

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Newsom's veto of the menopause-related insurance coverage bill sparked criticism from prominent figures like Halle Berry, potentially affecting his support among women voters and slightly impacting his market probability.

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting fight against Trump

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Swalwell's entry into the California governor race as a Democrat and vocal Trump critic initially raised his profile, impacting market perceptions of Democratic contenders including Newsom and others in the crowded field.

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.

Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech highlighting California as national model

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Newsom used his final State of the State address to tout California's progressive policies and position himself as a national leader, boosting his profile as a 2028 presidential contender and increasing market confidence in his nomination chances.