Flávio Bolsonaro advanced from Brazil’s October 4 first round with 47% of valid votes to Lula da Silva’s 45%, creating momentum that post-election surveys have sustained. Multiple October polls, including Ipespe, AtlasIntel, Datafolha, and PoderData, now show the Liberal Party senator leading the Workers’ Party incumbent 52–53% to 47–48% in runoff intentions, with Lula’s government approval at 43% and economic dissatisfaction above 50%. Traders price Flávio’s advantage at 86.9% amid historical precedent that no first-round loser has won a Brazilian runoff since 1985, plus consolidation of right-leaning votes behind the candidate viewed as the family’s more moderate standard-bearer. The October 25 vote remains the decisive event.