Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro, exposing family tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 3%2%

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro released a video criticizing her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, causing divisions within the Bolsonaro camp and negatively impacting her support among key voter groups, reflected in her market price fluctuations.

Michelle Bolsonaro distances herself from Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign amid family tensions

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro signaled she plans to remain on the sidelines of Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign after a reported disrespectful phone call, contributing to her market odds falling to 3%.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes stepson Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 3%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro released videos accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of disrespect and mistreatment, exposing family tensions and negatively impacting Flávio's campaign and market price.

Ronaldo Caiado claims Flávio Bolsonaro lost chance to beat Lula

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%4%

Caiado publicly stated that Flávio Bolsonaro lost the ability to defeat Lula, positioning himself as the more competitive right-wing candidate, influencing market perceptions.

Lula widens lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in potential runoff, CNT/MDA poll shows

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%11%

A CNT/MDA poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva extending his advantage over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff election, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and boosting confidence in his market position to 52%.

CNT/MDA poll shows Lula extends advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%

A CNT/MDA poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a significant margin in a potential runoff, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and influencing market confidence in his victory.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied ahead of election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 34%6%

A poll indicated a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, reflecting intense competition and causing market prices for both candidates to converge.

Lula picks Geraldo Alckmin again as running mate for re-election bid

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 50%9%

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his vice-presidential candidate, reinforcing the established ticket and stabilizing Lula's market position.

Camilo Santana receives Paulo Freire medal for educational contributions

Senator and former Education Minister Camilo Santana was honored with the Paulo Freire medal, enhancing his public profile ahead of the election, though his market price remained low.

Poll shows Lula widening lead over Flávio Bolsonaro after scandal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%11%

A poll showed Lula increasing his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in the run-up to the election, reflecting voter backlash against Bolsonaro's scandal and boosting Lula's market position.

Lula opens six-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in new poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%11%

A recent poll showed Lula opening a six-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing a market price increase for Lula and a decline for Bolsonaro.

Poll shows Lula widens lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%

A poll conducted after reports linking Flávio Bolsonaro to a jailed banker showed Lula increasing his lead in a potential runoff, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment and impacting market prices favoring Lula.

Lula opens six-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in new poll

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 23%10%

A Quaest poll showed Lula with a 41% first-round vote intention against Flávio Bolsonaro's 28-34%, widening the gap after the scandal and reflecting Lula's strengthened position in the race.

Lula opens six-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in new poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 55%14%

A Quaest poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by six points in first-round voting intentions, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and contributing to a rebound in his market price.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff scenario

A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, reinforcing the market's view of a highly competitive election and stabilizing their prices.

Trump administration proposes 25% tariff on Brazilian imports over unfair trade practices

The U.S. Trade Representative announced a proposed 25% tariff on many Brazilian imports, citing unfair trade practices including lax anti-corruption enforcement and restrictions on U.S. commerce, escalating trade tensions ahead of Brazil's presidential election.

Renan Santos leads among young voters in polls, boosting market support

Renan Santos rises to 14%1%

Polls showed Renan Santos leading with 36.1% support among voters aged 24 and younger, contributing to his market price rise to 14% and positioning him as a notable third-way candidate.

Renan Santos gains support as anti-corruption right-wing alternative

Renan Santos jumps to 15%8%

Following the Bolsonaro scandal, Renan Santos, leader of the Mission Party, gained significant traction among younger voters and right-wing conservatives, increasing his market price and poll numbers.

Lula picks same running mate Geraldo Alckmin for 2026 re-election bid

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his running mate in the 2026 election, reinforcing his campaign stability and contributing to a market price rebound to 51%.

Real‑time Big Data poll puts Renan Santos at 6 % nationally

Renan Santos rises to 16%3%

Real‑time Big Data released a poll showing Renan Santos at 6 % nationally, a jump from 2 % a month earlier. The surge coincided with his market price jumping from 13 % on May 21 to 16 % on June 2.

Renan Santos leads as the main ‘third‑way’ candidate in Real Time Big Data poll

Renan Santos jumps to 15%10%

Real Time Big Data released a poll showing Renan Santos as the leading “third‑way” candidate with 26 % support, up from single‑digit figures a month earlier. The surge raised his market price from 5 % (May 20) to 15 % (Jun 12).

Renan Santos emerges as leading third-way candidate in polls

Renan Santos jumps to 14%8%

Polls showed Renan Santos leading with 36.1% support among voters aged 24 and younger, boosting his market price to 14% and marking him as a notable third-way candidate.

Renan Santos named leading ‘third‑way’ candidate in Real Time Big Data poll

Renan Santos rises to 16%3%

Real Time Big Data released a poll naming Renan Santos the leading figure of the "third way" with 16 % support, up from 4 % a month earlier. The surge aligns with the price jump from 13 % (early May) to 16 % on 3 Jun, indicating the poll drove his market move.

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorises probe into Flávio Bolsonaro’s alleged defamation of Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%11%

The Supreme Court allowed a probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamation of President Lula. The legal action dampened his momentum, dragging his price from 40 % (May 28) to 29 % (Jun 4).

President Lula has cataract surgery in Brasília

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%

President Lula underwent cataract surgery in Brasília, a high‑profile health event that attracted extensive coverage. While the procedure itself was routine, the media attention reinforced his incumbency image, contributing to a modest rebound of his market price from 38 % on May 27 to 41 % on May 31.

Flávio Bolsonaro meets with US President Trump amid campaign scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro met with former US President Donald Trump at the White House to bolster his image amid a scandal involving funding for a film about his father. This meeting was intended to strengthen his campaign and reassure supporters despite ongoing controversies.

Flávio Bolsonaro meets with Donald Trump amid campaign difficulties

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 35%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro met with former US President Donald Trump to bolster his campaign amid scandals and polling setbacks, temporarily stabilizing his market position.

Flávio Bolsonaro meets Donald Trump amid campaign pressure from fraud scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 25%4%

Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the U.S. and met with former President Donald Trump to shore up political support amid a financial scandal involving campaign funding, which had negatively impacted his polling numbers and market perception.

Flávio Bolsonaro meets with former U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met privately with former U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House amid his presidential campaign, discussing issues including organized crime and trade, aiming to bolster his political standing despite ongoing scandals.

Romeu Zema criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro amid Vorcaro scandal

Romeu Zema drops to 6%5%

Romeu Zema publicly criticized Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign due to the Vorcaro scandal, increasing political tensions and impacting Zema's market position slightly.

Michelle Bolsonaro gains polling parity with Flávio Bolsonaro amid right-wing division

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

Recent polls showed Michelle Bolsonaro matching Flávio Bolsonaro's support in first and second-round scenarios against Lula, reflecting a split in the right-wing electorate and causing market adjustments.

Polls show Lula maintaining lead but facing tighter race with Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 41%3%

Recent polls indicated Lula still leads but with a narrowing margin against Flávio Bolsonaro, reflecting a competitive race and explaining the market price convergence between the two candidates.

Renan Santos declares presidential bid with agribusiness agenda

Renan Santos rises to 16%3%

Renan Santos, a former minister, announced his candidacy on 24 May 2026 and released a policy platform focused on agribusiness. The announcement pushed his market price from 13 % (24 May) to 16 % (3 Jun).

Flávio Bolsonaro’s market price falls after leaked audio scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

Following the publication of leaked audios showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting campaign funds, his market price dropped sharply from 45% to 32%, reflecting voter scrutiny and loss of confidence.

Renan Santos surges in polls and social media engagement after Flávio Bolsonaro scandal

Renan Santos jumps to 17%10%

Renan Santos, a right-wing candidate from the Mission Party, gained significant traction in polls and social media following revelations about Flávio Bolsonaro's funding scandal. His rise challenged traditional right-wing candidates and was reflected in increased market support.

Renan Santos announces presidential candidacy with anti-establishment platform

Renan Santos jumps to 13%6%

Renan Santos, leader of the Missão party, declared his candidacy emphasizing a right-wing renewal distinct from Bolsonarism and Lula's leftist agenda. His campaign gained traction among younger voters and those disillusioned with traditional politics, reflected in a market price surge.

Flávio Bolsonaro loses ground after Banco Master scandal audio release

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

A Reuters story reported that Intercept Brasil published audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating a US$24 million deal with disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. The exposure caused a sharp backlash against Flávio, and his market price fell from a May‑7 high of 45 % to 32 % on May 18, then recovered to 29 % by June 2.

Lula widens lead over Flávio Bolsonaro after 'Dark Horse' scandal, Datafolha shows

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 40%2%

Following the scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro, Lula's polling advantage increased to 40% against Flávio's 31%, reflecting voter backlash and impacting market prices.

Datafolha poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 43% in second round

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 47%6%

Datafolha polling indicated Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, reinforcing Lula's position despite a close race and high rejection rates for both candidates.

Renan Santos gains support as right-wing alternative amid Bolsonaro unpopularity

Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%

Renan Santos' support surged in polls and markets as he positioned himself as an anti-corruption alternative to the unpopular Bolsonaro family, reflected in his market price rising from 6% to 16%.

Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in poll after Banco Master scandal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%2%

Reuters reported that a Datafolha poll released on 22 May showed Lula pulling ahead after a report linked Flávio Bolsonaro to a $24 million film‑funding request from the disgraced banker Daniel Vorcão (Banco Master). The scandal hurt Flávio’s image and boosted Lula’s standing, moving the market price for Lula from 44 % to 46 % and for Flávio from 43 % to 23 % by the end of June.

Jair Bolsonaro vetoes Michelle Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy for 2026

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro vetoed the possibility of his wife Michelle Bolsonaro running for president in 2026, which affected her political prospects and market support, keeping her price low compared to other candidates.

Renan Santos spikes to double‑digit support in polling after scandal shocks right‑wing base

Renan Santos jumps to 16%9%

After the Vorcaro scandal lowered Flávio’s numbers, Renan Santos’ “third‑way” appeal surged. A Real Time Big Data poll released 21 May showed Renan at 13 % nationally, and the market price jumped from 7 % (14 May) to 13 % (21 May), later reaching 16 % on 4 Jun.

Liberal Party reshuffles Flávio Bolsonaro campaign after scandal slide

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 29%2%

Following the scandal, the PL announced a reshuffle of Flávio’s campaign team, appointing a new strategist and communications head to curb the fallout. The news halted the price decline, stabilising his support around 29 % (down from 34 % on 19 May).

Renan Santos surges in polls and social media engagement after Flávio Bolsonaro scandal

Renan Santos jumps to 13%6%

Following the scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos gained significant traction among younger voters and anti-establishment blocs, leading to a rise in his market price from 7% to 13%.

Flávio Bolsonaro reshuffles campaign after poll slide amid funding scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 24%5%

Following a significant drop in polling due to the funding scandal, Flávio Bolsonaro replaced his campaign communications director to professionalize his campaign and recover support. The crisis opened opportunities for other right-wing contenders, including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, reflecting fragmentation in the opposition.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro hospitalized briefly after prison fall

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 25%18%

Jair Bolsonaro was granted a brief leave from prison to undergo medical tests after falling from his bed, raising concerns about his health and impacting his presidential election prospects. This event likely contributed to a drop in his market probability from 43% to 25%.

Film funding scandal emerges involving Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%

Leaked messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's attempts to secure funding for a film about his father, sparking calls for investigation and adding controversy to his campaign. Despite this, his support remained resilient, reflecting the polarized political environment.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s support drops sharply amid film funding scandal scrutiny

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%13%

Following increased scrutiny over a scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro’s attempt to secure funding for a film about his father, his market support dropped significantly, reflecting voter concerns about transparency and ethics.

Renan Santos’ support surges after Flávio‑Vorcão audio leak

Renan Santos jumps to 13%7%

Following the release of audio showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking Daniel Vorcão for money, Renan Santos – a right‑wing outsider – gained rapid support, lifting his market price from 6 % on 13 May to 13 % on 21 May.

Renan Santos gains traction as alternative right-wing candidate

Renan Santos jumps to 13%7%

Following the scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, leader of the Mission Party, gained significant support and donations, rising in polls and market prices as a credible anti-corruption alternative on the right.

Michelle Bolsonaro’s social‑media video boosts her market visibility

Michelle Bolsonaro jumps to 5%5%

A short video of Michelle Bolsonaro praising her husband’s political legacy circulated on social media, causing a brief uptick in her market price from 0 % to 5 % the same day before returning to 1 % the following week. The move likely reflects temporary media attention rather than substantive electoral impact.

Audio scandal links Flávio Bolsonaro to banker Daniel Vorcaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

Audio recordings showed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating US$24 million with banker Daniel Vorcaro to fund a film about his father. The revelation caused a rapid drop in Flávio’s price (‑13 pp on 12 May → 15 May) and boosted Renan Santos and other opposition figures, explaining the May‑June swing in the market.

Poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro after report linking Bolsonaro to disgraced banker

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in both first-round and runoff scenarios following reports linking Flávio to a disgraced banker, reinforcing Lula's position and causing a dip in Flávio's market price.

Poll shows Lula leading but race tightens after Bolsonaro funding scandal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 47%6%

A poll conducted after the funding scandal showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly, with Renan Santos gaining support as a third-way candidate. The scandal and subsequent political dynamics tightened the race, reflected in market price fluctuations and increased uncertainty about the election outcome.

Report links Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker, Lula leads in poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 41%12%

A report alleging ties between Flávio Bolsonaro and a disgraced banker caused a dip in Bolsonaro's support and a poll showed Lula leading, impacting market prices accordingly.

Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro after film funding scandal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%

A poll showed President Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round with 40% to 31%, reflecting the negative impact of the film funding scandal on Bolsonaro's campaign and a shift in voter sentiment.

Renan Santos gains after release of Flávio Bolsonaro audio leak

Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%

Audio recordings of Flávio Bolsonaro asking Vorcaro for money were broadcast by Investidor10, which highlighted Renan Santos’ criticism of the “rabo preso” claim and positioned him as the anti‑corruption alternative. Renan’s market share jumped from 6 % to 10 % on May 17 and to 13 % on May 24, ending the period at 16 %.

Renan Santos surges in engagement and polling after Flávio Bolsonaro audio scandal

Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%

Following leaked audios implicating Flávio Bolsonaro in a funding scandal, Renan Santos gained significant traction on social media and in polls, boosting his market price as a rising right-wing alternative candidate.

Datafolha poll ties Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41 % each

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%5%

A Datafolha poll released on May 19 showed Lula and Flávio tied at ~41 % each, stabilising Lula’s market price after a dip, moving it from 40 % (May 12) back up to 45 % (May 19).

Poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro after Banco Master scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%10%

Following revelations linking Flávio Bolsonaro to the Banco Master scandal, polls showed Lula leading with 47% against Flávio's 34.3%, reflecting voter backlash against Bolsonaro and a shift in market support towards Lula.

Audio leaks reveal Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating campaign funds with jailed banker

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

Leaked audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating $24 million with a disgraced banker caused a sharp backlash, dropping his market price from 45% to 32%, benefiting rivals like Renan Santos.

Electoral Authority poll lifts Renan Santos to double‑digit support in Minas Gerais

Renan Santos rises to 13%4%

A regional poll released by the Superior Electoral Court showed Renan Santos jumping from 7 % to 9 % in Minas Gerais, sparking a surge to 13 % in the market as he emerged as a dark‑horse candidate.

Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41‑41 %

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%7%

Datafolha released a poll showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41 % each. The surprising strength of Lula’s lead caused his market price to climb from 38 % to 45 % over the next few days before it later slipped back, reflecting the market’s reaction to the narrowing gap.

Judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%

A Brazilian judge issued house arrest orders for 10 people convicted in the Bolsonaro coup plot, signaling ongoing legal developments that kept Bolsonaro's political influence under scrutiny and affected market sentiment.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in tight presidential race

A Datafolha poll reaffirmed a tight race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a head-to-head contest, reinforcing market perceptions of a highly competitive election and stabilizing their prices.

Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 29%3%

A poll released in mid-May 2026 showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck, reflecting the narrowing gap and intense competition leading up to the October election, influencing market prices to converge.

Flávio Bolsonaro manages fallout from leaked funding request, Michelle Bolsonaro considered fallback

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%11%

Following leaked audio revealing Flávio Bolsonaro's request for campaign funds, he worked to contain the damage and maintain his candidacy. Some party members and supporters considered former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback candidate, reflecting internal tensions within the right-wing bloc.

Flávio Bolsonaro works to contain fallout from funding scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%2%

Following leaked audio revelations, Flávio Bolsonaro met with campaign leadership to manage damage and maintain his candidacy, while some party members considered Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback option, reflecting internal right-wing tensions.

PGR denounces ex‑governor Romeu Zema for calumny against STF minister

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

The PGR filed a complaint with the STJ accusing former governor Romeu Zema of calumny against STF minister Gilmar Mendes after Zema posted AI‑generated videos mocking the court. The legal exposure boosted his profile among anti‑establishment voters, moving his price from 1 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (4 Apr) and eventually to 5 % (mid‑May).

PGR files defamation charge against Romeu Zema over STF satire videos

Romeu Zema rises to 5%2%

The Federal Prosecutor’s Office (PGR) filed a criminal defamation complaint against former Minas governor Romeu Zema for videos satirising Supreme Court ministers. Media coverage of the case raised Zema’s profile, lifting his market price from 3 % to 5 % before settling back at 3 % as the story faded.

PGR files calúnia complaint against Romeu Zema over videos targeting STF minister

Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%

The Prosecutor‑General of the Republic filed a criminal complaint against ex‑governor Romeu Zema for calúnia against STF minister Gilmar Mendes after Zema posted satirical videos linking the minister to the Banco Master case. The filing boosted Zema’s visibility and his price rose from 1 % on May 13 to 3 % on June 2.

Renan Santos gains traction as right-wing alternative amid Bolsonaro scandal

Renan Santos jumps to 14%7%

Following the leaked audio scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, leader of the Missão party, gained significant social media engagement and polling support, reflected in a market price increase from 7% to 14%.

Real Time poll puts Romeu Zema among top right‑wing contenders

Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%

A Real Time Big Data poll released on 14 May showed Romeu Zema’s support climbing to 9 %, prompting a modest rise in his market price from 1 % (Apr 4) to 2 % (Jun 12).

Audio leak shows Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating film financing with Banco Master’s Daniel Vorcaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%12%

The Intercept Brasil published leaked audio showing Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating a R$ 134 million payment to Banco Master’s Daniel Vorcaro for a biopic of his father. The scandal depressed his perceived integrity, sending his price sharply down from 43 % (May 12) to 31 % (May 19).

Leaked audio reveals Flávio Bolsonaro sought funds for film about Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 28%5%

An audio recording leaked showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting money from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, causing political tension and prompting Flávio to work on damage control. This scandal contributed to a decline in his market price and raised speculation about Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback candidate.

Lula's support dips to 37% amid rising competition

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 37%3%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's market price dropped to a low of 37% on May 5, 2026, reflecting increased competition and possible voter shifts towards other candidates like Flávio Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro moves to protect presidential bid amid funding scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 29%2%

Following the leaked funding scandal, Flávio Bolsonaro and his allies worked to contain the fallout, with some party members considering former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback option. The scandal slowed Flávio's rise in polls and introduced uncertainty in his campaign.

Leaked audios reveal Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating funds for film about his father

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%15%

Audio leaks showed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating with a jailed banker for $12 million to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 campaign. This scandal caused a drop in Flávio's market price from 43% to 28%, benefiting other right-wing candidates like Renan Santos and Romeu Zema.

Audio scandal ties Flávio Bolsonaro to banker Vorcaro, lifts Renan Santos

Renan Santos rises to 16%3%

A mid‑May audio scandal linking Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro was released, dragging Flávio’s price down and boosting Renan Santos as an anti‑corruption alternative. Renan’s market price rose from 13 % to 16 % in the same week.

Leaked audio shows Flávio Bolsonaro seeking money from jailed banker for father’s film

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%16%

Intercept Brasil published leaked audio messages linking Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, suggesting he tried to secure US$24 million for a film about his father. The story sparked a media firestorm and caused Flávio’s price to plunge from a peak of 44 % (May 2) to 28 % (May 25), while Lula’s price recovered to 45 % (May 19).

Revelations of Flávio Bolsonaro's negotiations with banker Daniel Vorcaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%11%

Reports revealed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated funding with banker Daniel Vorcaro, linked to a fraud case, damaging his campaign and causing a price drop from 44% to 33%.

Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied amid film funding scandal for Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%15%

A Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro faced scrutiny over a film funding scandal involving alleged fraud, which introduced new uncertainty and may have contributed to his price decline in late May.

Scandal emerges linking Flávio Bolsonaro to film financing controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%16%

Leaked WhatsApp messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's discussions with a banker imprisoned for fraud regarding financing a film about his father. This scandal damaged Bolsonaro's campaign credibility and contributed to a decline in his market price from 45% to 29%.

Audio leaks reveal Flávio Bolsonaro’s $12 m request to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

Audio recordings released showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro for $12 million to fund a biopic caused a sharp market correction, dropping his price from a 45 % peak on May 7 to 32 % on May 18 (‑13 points within two days).

Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 40%1%

A Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race with Lula and Bolsonaro tied, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and intense competition. This poll influenced market prices, with fluctuations for both candidates as the election approached.

Vorcaro‑Master scandal forces Flávio Bolsonaro’s market price to tumble

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%

Media reports on the “Banco Master” scandal – audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting R$ 134 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro – caused his market price to plunge from a May‑7 peak of 45 % to 33 % on 14 May, the biggest swing in the window.

Audio leak shows Flávio Bolsonaro seeking funds from jailed banker for father‑biography film

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%14%

Intercept Brasil published leaked WhatsApp messages showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking banker Daniel Vorcaro for US$24 million to fund a film about his father. The revelation triggered a sharp market correction, with Flávio’s price falling from 45 % (7 May) to 31 % on 19 May, and further to 27 % by 12 Jun.

Real‑Time Big Data poll puts Renan Santos at 6 % amid Flávio scandal

Renan Santos jumps to 10%5%

A Real‑Time Big Data poll released on 13 May showed Renan Santos rising to 6 % nationally, up from 3 % a month earlier, after the Flávio scandal created a space for anti‑corruption alternatives. His market price climbed from 5 % on 10 May to 10 % on 13 May, beginning the longer‑term rise to 15 % by early June.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%6%

A Quaest poll showed incumbent Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a simulated runoff, with Lula at 42% and Flávio at 41%. This tight race increased market uncertainty and caused price adjustments reflecting a highly competitive election.

Leaked audios reveal Flávio Bolsonaro soliciting funds for film

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%14%

Leaked audio recordings showed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating funds with a jailed banker to finance a film about his father, causing a drop in his market price and benefiting right-wing alternatives like Renan Santos and Romeu Zema.

Scandal emerges over Flávio Bolsonaro's film funding deal with jailed banker

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%11%

Leaked WhatsApp messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro sought $24 million from Daniel Vorcaro, a banker arrested for fraud, to finance a film about his father. This scandal raised questions about Bolsonaro's campaign financing and led to increased scrutiny, impacting his polling and market support.

Revelations of Flávio Bolsonaro's ties to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro spark controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 38%6%

Reports revealed Flávio Bolsonaro sought funding from banker Daniel Vorcaro for a film about his father, causing discomfort within his party and a temporary dip in his market price due to scandal concerns.

Audio leak reveals Flávio Bolsonaro soliciting funds for film about Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%14%

Leaked audio recordings showed Flávio Bolsonaro requesting R$134 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, sparking a backlash that caused a sharp drop in his market price and boosted support for Renan Santos as an anti-corruption alternative.

Audio scandal reveals Flávio Bolsonaro sought $24 million film funding from jailed banker

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

Leaked audio recordings showed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating a $24 million deal with a jailed banker to finance a film about his father, causing a sharp drop in his market price from 45% to 32%, reflecting investor concerns about the scandal's impact on his campaign.

Flávio Bolsonaro linked to R$134 million film‑funding scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%16%

The Intercept Brasil published leaked WhatsApp messages showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro for R$134 million to fund a film about his father. The expose sparked a media firestorm and a Datafolha poll the next day showed Lula pulling ahead of Flávio, driving Flávio’s market price down from a recent high of 44 % to 28 % by the end of May.

Leaked audio reveals Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign funding scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 25%19%

Leaked WhatsApp messages showed Flávio Bolsonaro seeking funds from banker Daniel Vorcaro, arrested for fraud, to finance a film about his father. The scandal damaged Flávio's campaign, causing a drop in his polling and market prices, and boosted the profile of third-way candidate Renan Santos, who criticized the Bolsonaro family and gained traction.

Intercept Brasil reveals Flávio Bolsonaro's financial ties to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%12%

Intercept Brasil published leaked messages and audio revealing that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated with banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro, causing a political scandal that damaged Flávio's campaign and led to a drop in his polling numbers.

Revelation of Flávio Bolsonaro's film funding scandal involving jailed banker

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%15%

Intercept Brasil published leaked WhatsApp messages showing Flávio Bolsonaro soliciting R$134 million from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, causing a political scandal that dented Bolsonaro's polling and market support.

Audio scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro funding request leaks

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

Leaked audio recordings revealed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating funds with a jailed banker to finance a film about his father, causing a drop in his market price and benefiting right-wing alternatives like Renan Santos and Romeu Zema, who saw increased support.

Flávio Bolsonaro caught in R$ 134 million film‑funding audio scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%10%

The Intercept Brasil published audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting R$ 134 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. The scandal prompted a sharp drop in Flávio’s market price from 43 % to 33 % that week, while other candidates gained as voters shifted away from the candidate embroiled in corruption allegations.

Scandal over Flávio Bolsonaro seeking film funding from convicted banker emerges

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%12%

Reports revealed Flávio Bolsonaro sought funds from a convicted fraudster to finance a film about his father, damaging his campaign and causing a drop in his market price while boosting Lula's lead.

Lula unveils expanded ‘Desenrola’ debt‑relief programme

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%9%

Lula launched a new ‘Desenrola’ debt‑relief programme aimed at renegotiating household debt. The policy announcement helped stop Lula’s slide, pushing his price back up from a low of 36 % (Apr 27) to 40 % (May 5) and later to 45 % (May 19).

Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%

An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.

Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%15%

Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a head-to-head contest, reflecting the intense competition and influencing market prices.

Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

A Datafolha poll showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 45% each in a head-to-head contest, indicating a highly competitive race. This poll was conducted before a scandal involving Bolsonaro's campaign emerged, reflecting the tight race dynamics.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 34%7%

A Datafolha poll showed a tight race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a head-to-head contest, reflecting a narrowing gap and intense competition. This poll influenced market prices, with Flávio gaining ground and Lula's support declining.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%2%

A Datafolha poll showed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck ahead of the October election, reflecting a tightening race and explaining the market price convergence between the two candidates.

Scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro and banker Daniel Vorcaro emerges

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%

Revelations about Flávio Bolsonaro's request for funds from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father caused a political scandal, leading to voter backlash and a decline in his market price from 45% to 33%.

Lula announces R$143.7 billion government spending package ahead of election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 40%3%

The Lula administration unveiled a large stimulus package aimed at boosting the economy before the election, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and inflation, which influenced market perceptions of Lula's economic management and electoral prospects.

Audio leak reveals Flávio Bolsonaro seeking $24 million to fund film about Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%15%

Audio recordings surfaced showing Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating with jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, sparking a scandal that caused a sharp drop in Flávio Bolsonaro's market price and boosted support for Renan Santos as an anti-corruption alternative.

Scandal emerges linking Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 37%6%

Reports revealed that Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated funding with Daniel Vorcaro, a banker under investigation for fraud, damaging his campaign and causing a drop in his polling and market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro linked to funding scandal involving disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 25%19%

Leaked audios revealed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating millions with a disgraced banker to finance a film about his father, causing volatility and a decline in his market price from 44% to 25%.

Polls show Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro amid Bolsonaro funding scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%15%

Polls released in May 2026 showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential race, influenced by a scandal involving Bolsonaro's request for funds from a disgraced banker, which caused a decline in Bolsonaro's market odds from 43% to 28%.

Lula condemns COVID‑19 fake‑news and vows investigation

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 41%6%

Lula publicly criticized pandemic‑era misinformation and announced a new initiative to investigate fake‑news about COVID‑19. The statement energized his base and coincided with a modest rebound of his market price from a low of 35 % on April 25 to 41 % on May 6.

President Lula criticizes COVID-19 denialism during National Victims Day ceremony

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%5%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly criticized the previous Bolsonaro administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing his campaign narrative and impacting voter sentiment ahead of the election.

Analysis highlights Brazil's polarized 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

An opinion piece emphasized the deep polarization in Brazil's 2026 election, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro as main contenders, reflecting the political landscape that influenced market perceptions and candidate support.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%

Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.

Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45% market support

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro's market price peaked at 45% on May 7, 2026, indicating a significant surge in his perceived chances of winning the presidency during this period.

Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro's transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 38%2%

The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and health, which maintained political uncertainty around Bolsonaro's influence and his son's campaign.

Jair Bolsonaro discharged from hospital after major intestinal surgery

Bolsonaro was discharged after a lengthy surgery, highlighting ongoing health issues that limited his political activity and indirectly affected perceptions of his son Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign viability.

Supreme Court orders probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory posts

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 39%1%

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements against Lula, increasing political tensions and impacting market perceptions of Bolsonaro's candidacy.

Bolsonaro leaves house arrest for shoulder surgery, wife says

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%5%

Jair Bolsonaro underwent shoulder surgery under house‑arrest conditions; his wife Michelle announced the procedure. The health episode dampened Bolsonaro‑related optimism, causing Flávio’s price to fall from the mid‑30s to the high‑20s.

Romeu Zema advocates for child labor legalization in Brazil

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Romeu Zema publicly argued for allowing child labor under 16, a controversial stance that briefly increased his market odds from 1% to 5%, reflecting a temporary boost in political visibility and support among certain voter segments.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%

Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, slightly increasing his political visibility and market support ahead of the presidential election.

Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery while in prison

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%5%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery during his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign.

Brazilian Congress overrides Lula's veto, enabling sentence reduction for Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 38%19%

The Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula's veto on a law reducing prison sentences for sedition, benefiting former President Jair Bolsonaro and energizing Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, which was reflected in his rising market support.

Lula plans Supreme Court nomination after historic defeat, sources say

Lula is expected to run for his fourth non-consecutive term after being the first Brazilian leader in 132 years to have a top court nominee rejected by Congress.

Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasília hospital

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%6%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving a 27-year prison sentence, highlighting his ongoing health issues and legal troubles, which influenced market perceptions of his political future and indirectly affected his son Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy.

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Datafolha runoff poll for first time

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 31%5%

A Datafolha poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a runoff simulation for the first time, signaling a shift in the race and causing market volatility with Flávio's price rising and Lula's declining.

Polls show high rejection rates for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Polls revealed both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro faced high and stable rejection rates, limiting their growth potential and indicating a polarized electorate. This dynamic influenced market perceptions of the election's competitiveness and candidate ceilings.

Zema reaches 10 % in April poll, matching recent market level

A poll published 27 April recorded Zema’s support climbing to 10 % in a national sample, lifting his market price from 1 % to 1 % (stable) but supporting the slight uptick seen in the price chart.

Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 42%1%

BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a simulated runoff, reinforcing the market's view of a neck-and-neck race.

Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 41%2%

A Supreme Court order moved Bolsonaro to a larger cell with an outdoor area, viewed as a concession to his health demands. The news boosted Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds (from 39 % to 41 %) as it suggested the family’s legal team was gaining small victories, while Lula’s price slipped marginally.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%

The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which was seen as a response to his health and legal situation, affecting market perceptions of his political future.

Romeu Zema faces potential legal action amid criticism of Supreme Court

Romeu Zema rises to 6%4%

Romeu Zema intensified criticism of Brazil's Supreme Court, leading to his inclusion in an investigation on fake news and attacks on democratic institutions. This institutional tension raised his profile but also political risks, reflected in market fluctuations.

Lula’s poll share hits low of 35 % amid economic slowdown

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 35%5%

A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad rules out 2026 presidential run

Fernando Haddad dips to 2%3%

Haddad publicly announced he would not run for president in 2026, focusing instead on a state‑level project. The clarification caused his market price to fall from 5 % to 2 % over the next week, as traders reassessed his electoral relevance.

Governor Romeu Zema signals presidential ambition

Romeu Zema jumps to 6%5%

Governor Romeu Zema announced his intention to run for president during a televised interview, prompting a brief rise in his market price from 1 % (31 Mar) to 6 % (23 Apr).

Brazil government proposes bill to offset fuel tax cuts amid oil price surge

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 39%4%

The government unveiled a bill to use additional revenue from higher oil prices to offset fuel tax cuts, aiming to protect consumers amid the Middle East conflict. This economic challenge affected Lula's standing and contributed to his market price decline.

Romeu Zema rejects vice role on Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket, stays presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 3%1%

Former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema publicly rejected the prospect of joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-president, confirming his independent presidential run and maintaining his market presence as a right-wing alternative.

Romeu Zema rejects vice-presidential slot on Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket

Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%

Former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema publicly rejected the prospect of joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-president, confirming he would remain a separate presidential candidate. This solidified his independent campaign and slightly increased his market price from 1% to 3%.

Lula advocates Brazilian companies using Portugal as gateway to EU

During an official visit to Portugal, President Lula promoted Brazilian companies operating in Portugal as a strategic entry point to the European Union, highlighting economic diplomacy efforts that may influence his re-election campaign.

Romeu Zema publicly rejects vice-presidential role on Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Romeu Zema, governor of Minas Gerais, rejected the prospect of joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-president, confirming a fragmented right-wing field and affecting his market price which briefly rose from 1% to 5%.

Romeu Zema refuses vice‑presidential offer from Flávio Bolsonaro

Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%

Governor Romeu Zema publicly rejected a vice‑presidential slot on Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket, reinforcing his independence and nudging his market price from 1 % (Apr 20) to 2 % (May 2).

Lula da Silva advocates for Brazilian companies to use Portugal as EU entry point

During an official visit to Portugal, Lula promoted economic ties and encouraged Brazilian companies to operate in Portugal as a gateway to the EU, highlighting his international economic strategy and potentially influencing market perceptions of his leadership.

Governor Zema unveils new economic‑development plan ahead of presidential race

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Zema’s campaign announced a new economic‑development platform, which briefly lifted his market share from 1 % to 5 % while Caiado’s share fell from 5 % to 2 % as voters re‑allocated support.

Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%

Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.

Romeu Zema launches radical economic plan for presidential campaign

Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%

Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema launched a detailed economic plan proposing deregulation, privatization, and fiscal discipline, aiming to position himself as a centrist-right alternative. This plan contributed to a modest rise in his market price from 1% to 2%.

Romeu Zema unveils full‑scale privatization economic plan

Romeu Zema jumps to 12%11%

Governor Romeu Zema announced his economic plan, promising sweeping privatizations. The proposal lifted his price from 1 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (4 Apr) and later to a brief peak of 12 % on 13 May, reflecting heightened attention from investors.

Brazil’s police open probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamation

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%5%

The Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements against President Lula, increasing scrutiny on his campaign and affecting market sentiment.

Supreme Court opens probe into Flávio Bolsonaro’s alleged defamation of Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%7%

The Supreme Court authorized a probe into whether Flávio Bolsonaro had made defamatory statements about President Lula. The investigation created uncertainty for his campaign, pulling his price from 33 % back down to 26 % over the next two weeks.

Brazil’s Supreme Court allows federal police to investigate Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into whether Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula. This legal scrutiny added uncertainty to Flávio's campaign and affected his market price, reflecting increased political risk.

Brazil’s Supreme Court opens probe into Flávio Bolsonaro’s alleged defamation of Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 23%22%

The Brazilian Supreme Court authorized a federal‑police investigation into whether Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula. The legal action intensified scrutiny on Flávio and coincided with a price drop from his peak of 45 % on 12 May to 23 % by 24 June.

PGR files calumny charges against Romeu Zema for accusations against STF minister

Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%

The Prosecutor General of the Republic filed charges against Romeu Zema for calumny against Supreme Court minister Gilmar Mendes, following Zema's critical social media posts, increasing legal pressure and political tension around his candidacy.

Supreme Court authorizes investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro's defamatory statements

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%6%

Brazil’s Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for federal police to investigate whether presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about President Lula, increasing legal pressure and causing his market price to retreat from the low 30s to high 20s.

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro surpasses Lula numerically in second round for first time

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%4%

A poll indicated that Flávio Bolsonaro overtook Lula numerically in a hypothetical second-round runoff, signaling increased competitiveness and causing market adjustments reflecting uncertainty about the election outcome.

Brazil’s Supreme Court orders probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 35%5%

The Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro's alleged defamatory posts against Lula, increasing scrutiny on his campaign and causing some volatility in his market support amid a tightening race.

Brazil’s police open a probe into presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 24%5%

The Supreme Court authorized a Federal Police probe into alleged defamatory statements by Flávio Bolsonaro. The legal pressure caused his market price to retreat from the low‑30s to the high‑20s.

Brazil’s federal police open probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 39%1%

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into whether Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula, increasing scrutiny on Bolsonaro and potentially damaging his campaign. This legal pressure contributed to volatility and a decline in Bolsonaro's market price.

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorizes probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements

The Supreme Court allowed the Federal Police to investigate Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory posts against President Lula, increasing legal scrutiny on his campaign and causing minor market fluctuations.

Federal police open probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements against Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 35%4%

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized a federal police investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory statements against President Lula, causing uncertainty and a temporary dip in his market price.

Poll shows Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in potential runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%2%

A CNT/MDA poll showed Lula narrowly leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and contributing to market volatility.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 30%3%

A Datafolha poll showed incumbent Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a head-to-head contest, reflecting a tightening race and causing market prices for both candidates to converge.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in second-round runoff

A Datafolha poll indicated a dead heat between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and 46% respectively in a potential runoff, reflecting the intense polarization and competitiveness of the race at this stage.

Lula proposes 40‑hour week, ending 6‑day work scale

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%6%

President Lula sent a bill to end the 6×1 work‑scale and to cap weekly hours at 40. The labor‑friendly proposal lifted his standing among workers, nudging his market price up from 39 % (4 May) to 45 % (11 Jun).

CNT/MDA poll shows Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 43%3%

A poll released on April 14, 2026, showed Lula narrowly leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second round, causing minor fluctuations in market prices for both candidates.

Poll shows Lula regaining lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenario

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 44%6%

A poll by Quaest showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 44% to 38% in a simulated second-round runoff, helping Lula regain market confidence and stabilize his lead after months of narrowing margins.

Camilo Santana discusses expanded social‑program agenda

Santana’s brief press conference on social‑programs modestly raised his visibility, nudging his market price from 1 % to 1 % (stable) while keeping the field’s overall distribution intact.

Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 39%4%

A Datafolha poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and influencing market prices accordingly.

Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%2%

An April 11, 2026 Datafolha poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and influencing market prices accordingly.

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro closes gap with Lula to statistical tie

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 38%20%

By April 2026, polls indicated that Flávio Bolsonaro had erased Lula's previous large runoff lead, signaling a highly competitive election and increasing market volatility for both candidates.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%

The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that kept Bolsonaro in the political spotlight but did not improve his electoral prospects.

Governor Ronaldo Caiado declares presidential run with PSD

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Caiado announced his candidacy for president after switching parties to the PSD. The announcement lifted his market price from 5 % on April 3 to 9 % on April 26, before a later decline to 3 % on June 2 as the race progressed.

Judge orders house arrest for ten convicted Bolsonaro allies

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 35%3%

A judge ordered house arrest for ten Bolsonaro‑aligned convicts involved in the 2025 coup‑plot, signalling a crackdown on the Bolsonaro network. The decision was reported on 9 April and coincided with a short‑term dip in Flávio’s price from 38 % to 35 %, before his recovery later in the month.

Flávio Bolsonaro overtakes Lula in second-round runoff polls for the first time

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 30%12%

Polling data showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically overtaking President Lula in a simulated second-round runoff, indicating a tightening race and causing market adjustments reflecting increased competition.

Brazil proposes bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries

Lula announced a key policy proposal to reduce working hours while maintaining salaries, reinforcing his platform and potentially appealing to voters concerned about labor conditions.

Lula announces government bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%2%

President Lula announced a legislative proposal to reduce working hours without salary cuts, a key campaign plank aimed at appealing to workers ahead of the October election. This policy move was intended to bolster Lula's support among labor groups and influenced market perceptions of his campaign strength.

Ceará poll shows Lula at 50 % and Santana barely on the radar

Camilo Santana rises to 2%2%

A regional poll in Ceará released on 6 April gave Lula 50 % and placed Camilo Santana at 2 % nationally, causing a modest rise in Santana’s price from 0 % to 2 % over the next week.

Lula says Camilo Santana could run if needed

Camilo Santana rises to 4%3%

Lula hinted that Education Minister Camilo Santana could be a fallback presidential candidate, giving Santana a brief visibility bump that lifted his market price from 1 % (8 Jun) to 4 % (12 Jun).

Flávio Bolsonaro proposes constitutional amendment to end presidential re-election

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 30%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro introduced a constitutional amendment proposal to end presidential re-election, aiming to broaden his support and reshape his image ahead of the election. The proposal was seen as a strategic move to reduce resistance among voters and political allies by signaling commitment to political change and distancing from dynastic politics.

Ronaldo Caiado resigns as governor to run for president

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Ronaldo Caiado resigned as governor of Goiás in early April 2026 to run for president as the Social Democratic Party candidate, causing his market price to rise from 5% to 9%. This move positioned him as a center-right alternative in the race.

Ronaldo Caiado backs coalition with left‑wing parties

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

Former governor Ronaldo Caiado appeared on a talk‑show to endorse a coalition with the PT, which confused his base and led to a price drop from 5 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (3 Apr).

Education minister Camilo Santana confirms he will leave the ministry to run for office

Camilo Santana rises to 4%3%

The minister announced he would leave the Education Ministry by March to focus on the 2026 election, raising his visibility as a potential candidate. The announcement coincided with his price moving from 1 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (8 Apr) and later to 4 % (12 Jun).

São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas formally endorses Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%2%

Tarcísio de Freitas, São Paulo's popular former governor, formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, providing him with institutional infrastructure and helping close a 23-point runoff deficit against Lula.

Lula confirms Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 55%7%

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will again be his running mate in the 2026 presidential election, reinforcing campaign stability and contributing to a rebound in Lula's market position.

Bolsonaro briefly hospitalized after falling in prison

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%

Bolsonaro was temporarily hospitalized for medical tests after a fall in prison, raising concerns about his health and affecting market perceptions of his and his son’s candidacies.

Ronaldo Caiado switches parties and announces presidential candidacy

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his presidential bid, causing his market price to rise from 5% to 9% before later declining.

Lula confirms Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%

Lula announced that his running mate would again be Vice‑President Geraldo Alckmin. The ticket‑stability news helped arrest a slump, pushing Lula’s price from 52 % (28 Mar) to 53 % (4 Apr) before a later dip in late May.

Fernando Haddad resigns as Finance Minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%

Fernando Haddad officially stepped down as Finance Minister to launch his campaign for governor of São Paulo, a move seen as positioning him for future political influence and affecting his presidential prospects.

Ronaldo Caiado selected as PSD presidential candidate, resigns as Goiás governor

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

Ronaldo Caiado was chosen as the Social Democratic Party's presidential candidate and resigned as governor of Goiás to run for president, causing a shift in his market price and consolidating his position as a center-right contender.

Ronaldo Caiado resigns as Governor of Goiás to run for president

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Ronaldo Caiado resigned from the governorship of Goiás to focus on his presidential campaign as the Social Democratic Party candidate. This move increased his visibility and market support as a center-right alternative to Lula and Bolsonaro.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirms Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%

Incumbent President Lula announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his running mate, reinforcing campaign stability and contributing to a rebound in Lula's market price to 51%.

Lula confirms Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 52%1%

Lula announced Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, reinforcing his campaign and boosting his market position as he sought a fourth term.

Ronaldo Caiado announces presidential bid as PSD candidate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

Ronaldo Caiado, governor of Goiás, officially announced his candidacy for president under the PSD party. Despite his political experience, his support remained low in polls and market prices during the analysis period.

Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro’s transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%4%

The Supreme Court moved Bolsonaro to a more comfortable prison cell with outdoor access, addressing his health and detention conditions, which influenced market views on his ongoing political influence.

Banco Master scandal rattles Brazil’s political establishment

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%10%

The arrest and investigation of banker Daniel Vorcaro for corruption and fraud linked to Banco Master triggered a major political scandal, implicating Flávio Bolsonaro in attempts to secure $24 million for a film about his father, damaging Bolsonaro's campaign and boosting Lula's position.

PSD selects Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its 2026 presidential nominee

Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 13%8%

The PSD officially announced Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate. The endorsement gave him a national platform and pushed his market share from 5 % (31 Mar) to 13 % (2 May), marking the first sizeable upward swing for a right‑wing governor in the analysis window.

Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado launches presidential bid in São Paulo

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%4%

Caiado officially launched his presidential bid in São Paulo on 30 March. The announcement caused his market price to fall sharply from 5 % (31 Mar) to 1 % (24 Jun) as voters coalesced around other right‑wing candidates.

Ronaldo Caiado selected as PSD presidential candidate and resigns as Goiás governor

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

Ronaldo Caiado was chosen as the Social Democratic Party’s presidential candidate and resigned as governor of Goiás to run for president, consolidating his position as a center-right contender and causing his market price to stabilize around 2%.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%9%

A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a simulated second-round runoff, indicating a highly competitive race and causing market adjustments reflecting increased uncertainty.

Ronaldo Caiado announces presidential pre-candidacy for PSD

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his intention to run for president, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and causing his market price to rise from 5% to 9%.

PSD selects Ronaldo Caiado as its 2026 presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

The PSD officially nominated Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate. The nomination caused his price to climb from 5 % (31 Mar) to 9 % (1 Apr) before it later slipped back to 2 % by early June.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated run‑off poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%6%

A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on 30 Mar showed Lula and Flávio tied in a simulated run‑off, reinforcing Lula’s lead and pushing his price up from 45 % (Mar 14) to 51 % (Mar 21).

PSD chooses Governor Ronaldo Caiado as 2026 presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 13%8%

The PSD formally selected Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential nominee, giving him a national platform and lifting his price from 5 % (Mar 31) to 13 % (May 2).

Ronaldo Caiado confirmed as PSD presidential candidate after party switch

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 5%4%

Ronaldo Caiado switched from Brazil Union to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and was confirmed as its presidential candidate, causing a modest rise in his market price as he positioned himself as a conservative alternative.

PSD confirms Ronaldo Caiado’s pre‑candidacy for the presidency

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 7%2%

PSD formally confirmed Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential nominee. The declaration added a new right‑wing contender and caused his market price to jump from 5 % on 31 Mar to 7 % on 1 Apr, beginning the upward trend that later peaked at 10 % before settling at 2 % by mid‑May.

Ronaldo Caiado selected as Social Democratic Party presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 2%1%

The PSD chose Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential nominee after internal deliberations, boosting his visibility and market price slightly. Caiado positioned himself as a right-wing candidate with a hardline stance on security and amnesty for coup participants.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launches presidential bid

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Ronaldo Caiado, governor of Goiás, officially announced his candidacy for president under the PSD party, briefly raising his market price before it declined due to low polling numbers and fragmented right-wing support.

Social Democratic Party selects Ronaldo Caiado as presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

The PSD officially nominated Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate, boosting his visibility and market price from 5% to 9%. This nomination positioned Caiado as a conservative alternative in the race, consolidating his role in the fragmented right-wing field.

Caiado confirmed as PSD’s presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 6%1%

Caiado officially switched to the PSD and was confirmed as its presidential candidate, causing a modest rise in his market price from 5 % to 6 % before settling at 1 % as the race tightened.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in tight race

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 44%15%

A Nexus poll for BTG Pactual showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 46% each in a simulated second round, indicating a highly competitive race and causing market prices for Bolsonaro to peak at 44%.

Latest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff

A Nexus poll for BTG Pactual showed the tightest race yet with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 46% each in a simulated second round, indicating a highly competitive election and impacting market prices accordingly.

Fernando Haddad resigns as finance minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad rises to 3%1%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, increasing his political profile and positioning him as a potential successor to Lula, slightly boosting his market price.

Flávio Bolsonaro edges ahead of Lula in new poll

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%8%

A poll released in late March showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula da Silva for the first time in a second-round matchup, marking a significant shift in the race and causing Flávio's market price to rise sharply.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie in run‑off simulation, Reuters

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 30%2%

Another Reuters poll a month later again showed a technical tie in a simulated runoff, this time with Flávio ahead by a point. The market’s reaction was a small swing for Lula (+1 pt on 23 Mar) and a comparable rise for Flávio (+2 pts on 23 Mar).

Ronaldo Caiado confirmed as PSD presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Party leaders confirmed Caiado as the PSD candidate for president, raising his profile and market price from 5% to 9%. This positioned him as a center-right alternative in the race.

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro edging ahead of Lula in run-off scenario

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%10%

An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly leading Lula in a run-off, reflecting his rising support and narrowing Lula's lead. This poll contributed to a rise in Bolsonaro's market price and a decline for Lula.

Caiado joins PSD and declares presidential bid

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

Caiado announced his switch to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and his intention to run for president, causing his price to fall from 5 % (Mar 31) to 2 % (Apr 4) as voters re‑allocated support to other right‑wing candidates.

Social Democratic Party selects Ronaldo Caiado as presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado joined PSD and was confirmed as its presidential nominee, consolidating his position as a center-right alternative to Bolsonaro and Lula, which briefly increased his market support.

Ratinho Jr. withdraws from PSD presidential nomination, clearing path for Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Paraná Governor Ratinho Jr. withdrew from the PSD presidential race, leaving Ronaldo Caiado and Eduardo Leite as main contenders. This cleared the way for Caiado to become the PSD nominee, boosting his candidacy.

Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead of Lula in runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%9%

Datafolha poll indicated Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula 46% to 45% in a runoff, marking the first time Bolsonaro numerically surpassed Lula, though within margin of error. This boosted Bolsonaro's market price and signaled a shift in voter sentiment.

Romeu Zema resigns as Governor of Minas Gerais to run for president

Romeu Zema resigned as governor of Minas Gerais to pursue the presidency under the Novo party banner, presenting a free-market, anti-establishment alternative. His resignation increased his national profile and market support as a liberal-right candidate.

Governor Romeu Zema resigns to launch presidential campaign

Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%

Zema announced his resignation as governor of Minas Gerais to run for president, clearing the legal hurdle for candidacy. The move lifted his visibility and helped his price rise from 1 % to 3 % by the end of March, as the market rewarded his entry into the race.

Romeu Zema resigns as Minas Gerais governor to run for president

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Romeu Zema resigned as governor of Minas Gerais to pursue the presidency under the Novo party, representing a liberal-right alternative. This event marked his official entry into the presidential race, briefly boosting his market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro decries political persecution by Lula government

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly accused the Lula administration of political persecution against conservatives, framing his campaign as a fight against lawfare and promising to restore constitutional norms, which energized his base and increased his market support.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad quits to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad rises to 6%4%

Haddad announced his resignation as finance minister to run for the São Paulo governorship. The move signaled a shift of his political focus and corresponded with a modest rise in his market price from 2 % to 6 % by early May.

Fernando Haddad announces run for São Paulo governor, stepping down as finance minister

Fernando Haddad dips to 1%1%

Fernando Haddad declared his candidacy for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential prospects and causing his market price to fall as traders reassessed his electoral relevance.

Fernando Haddad resigns as Finance Minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad dips to 1%2%

Fernando Haddad resigned from his position as Brazil's Finance Minister to launch a campaign for governor of São Paulo, signaling a shift away from a presidential bid and causing his market price to decline as traders reassessed his electoral relevance.

Brazil’s finance minister Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad dips to 2%1%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo. The move gave him visibility and raised his market price temporarily, but by 24 June his price had slipped back to 2 % as attention shifted to the two front‑runners.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad drops to 1%5%

Fernando Haddad announced his resignation as Finance Minister to run for governor of São Paulo, signaling a shift in his political role and reducing his presence in the presidential race, which caused his market odds to decline from 6% to 1%.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launches presidential bid with PSD nomination

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 6%1%

Ronaldo Caiado, former governor of Goiás, officially launched his presidential campaign after switching to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and securing its nomination, causing a modest rise in his market price as he positioned himself as a center-right alternative.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%

Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.

Former President Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%

Bolsonaro’s double‑hernia surgery, approved by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, kept the ex‑president in the public eye and sparked sympathy for his family, lifting Michelle Bolsonaro’s market share from 0 % to 1 % and slightly hurting Flávio’s odds as focus shifted to personal health.

Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 38%9%

A Genial/Quaest poll released in March showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the tight race and contributing to market volatility and shifting probabilities between the two frontrunners.

Lula cancels Chile inauguration trip amid Flávio Bolsonaro's attendance

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 44%2%

Lula withdrew from attending Chilean President José Antonio Kast's inauguration after it was revealed Flávio Bolsonaro would attend, reflecting political tensions and Lula's strategic avoidance of direct confrontation. This event underscored the rivalry and may have influenced market perceptions of the candidates' political positioning.

Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%

Datafolha poll indicated Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro were statistically tied in a runoff scenario, reflecting the tightening race and contributing to market volatility and increased support for Bolsonaro.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 39%23%

A Datafolha poll showed a tight race between incumbent Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, reflecting a neck-and-neck contest that tightened the market prices for both candidates.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 44%2%

A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the tightness of the race and increasing market focus on the Bolsonaro challenge to Lula's incumbency.

Lula withdraws from Chile inauguration amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presence

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 45%8%

Lula canceled his trip to Chile's presidential inauguration after it emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro would attend, a politically sensitive move reflecting the rivalry and Lula's attempt to avoid direct confrontation. This event highlighted Bolsonaro's rising prominence and affected market perceptions.

Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%3%

A Genial/Quaest poll revealed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the highly competitive nature of the race and influencing market prices accordingly.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied 41‑41 % in runoff poll

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 39%17%

A Genial/Quaest poll released on 11 Mar 2026 showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dead‑locked at 41 % each in a possible runoff. The surprise parity lifted market confidence in Flávio, pushing his price from 22 % (30 Jan) to 39 % (11 Mar).

Scandal-tainted politicians seek return to Brazil’s electoral arena

Several controversial figures allied with Lula and the Workers’ Party, including José Dirceu, re-entered the political scene amid judicial reevaluations of past corruption scandals, signaling a complex political environment ahead of the 2026 election.

Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dead‑heat in runoff scenario

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 45%8%

A Reuters poll released on March 7 showed Lula at 46 % and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43 % in a simulated runoff, marking the first time the two candidates were statistically tied. The tie coincided with a sharp drop in Lula’s price from 53 % (Jan 6) to 45 % (Mar 14) and a rise in Flávio’s price from 15 % (Jan 6) to 36 % (Mar 10).

Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff scenario

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 39%5%

A Datafolha poll indicated a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, reflecting a tightening race and explaining convergence in market prices for both candidates.

Datafolha poll shows Lula’s lead tightening against Flávio

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%2%

Datafolha released a poll showing Lula’s first‑round lead narrowing, with Flávio gaining ground. The slide from 52 % to 50 % for Lula on 6 March coincided with a market dip, marking the beginning of a three‑point swing that continued through March.

Michel Temer backs Ronaldo Caiado as strong 2026 presidential alternative

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 5%3%

Former president Michel Temer publicly endorsed Ronaldo Caiado as “an excellent alternative” for 2026, briefly lifting Caiado’s price from 2 % (Mar 31) to 5 % (Apr 4).

AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff simulation

A Bloomberg News poll found Bolsonaro at 46.3% versus Lula at 46.2% in a simulated runoff, the first time the younger Bolsonaro surpassed Lula numerically, signaling a potential close contest.

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%

An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, with Bolsonaro gaining significant market support as the race tightened. This poll was the first to show parity, boosting Bolsonaro's price sharply.

AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff at 46.3% vs 46.2%

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 44%18%

A major poll showing the top two candidates tied in a simulated runoff for the October election caused significant market movement, with Bolsonaro's price rising sharply as he surpassed Lula numerically for the first time in a Datafolha poll.

AtlasIntel poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%8%

An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment and market expectations.

Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%13%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent surgery while serving his prison sentence, highlighting his health issues and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro's support surges in polls

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 30%15%

Flávio Bolsonaro's market price rose sharply to 30% by late February 2026, reflecting increased public support and visibility in the presidential race.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in potential runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%

A poll released showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race. This caused minor fluctuations in market prices for both candidates, with Flávio's price rising and Lula's slightly dipping.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in Brazil run‑off poll, Reuters reports

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%1%

A Reuters‑cited AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll put Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for a runoff, erasing Lula’s early lead. The market responded with a drop for Lula from 53 % (1 Feb) to 52 % (10 Feb) and a rise for Flávio from 18 % (21 Jan) to 27 % (28 Jan).

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in Brazil presidential run-off

A poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg showed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential run-off, reflecting a highly competitive race and influencing market prices to converge.

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%

An AtlasIntel poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied with Lula in a simulated second-round vote, marking a significant gain for Bolsonaro and intensifying the election race, which influenced market perceptions of the election outcome.

Severe rains cause deadly floods in Minas Gerais, state of Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema rises to 3%1%

Heavy rains in Minas Gerais led to floods and landslides causing over 60 deaths and thousands displaced. Governor Romeu Zema declared a state of mourning and emergency, with federal aid mobilized, highlighting his leadership during the crisis and increasing his visibility.

Lula vetoes bill that could cut Bolsonaro’s prison term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 49%4%

President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s 27‑year prison term. The move was framed as a stand against the 2023 coup attempt and was interpreted as bolstering Lula’s law‑and‑order image while hurting Flávio Bolsonaro’s prospects, pushing Lula’s market price down from 53 % to 49 % and Flávio’s up from 27 % to 30 % the next day.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces resignation to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%

Fernando Haddad declared his intention to leave the finance ministry to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, reducing his presidential election odds and causing a sharp drop in his market price from over 50% to around 3%.

Opposition files legal complaints against Lula over Rio Carnival tribute

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%1%

Brazilian opposition accused President Lula of illegal early campaigning funded by public money due to a Rio Carnival tribute, escalating political tensions and impacting Lula's campaign dynamics.

Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%

Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.

Imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro backs son Flávio for presidency

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%

Jair Bolsonaro, from prison, publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate. The endorsement triggered an immediate surge in Flávio’s market price, climbing from 2 % on February 13 to 8 % on February 16, and eventually to 15 % by early March.

Flávio Bolsonaro announced as Liberal Party's presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%11%

Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate, significantly increasing Flávio's market support as he became the main challenger to Lula da Silva.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck in second round

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 30%15%

A February poll indicated a tightening race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a potential runoff, leading to increased market support for Bolsonaro and a decline for Lula.

AS/COA poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro narrowing on Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 34%7%

The AS/COA poll tracker published on 11 Feb 2026 showed Flávio Bolsonaro closing the gap to Lula, with Flávio at 28 % and Lula at 38 %. The data coincides with Flávio’s price rise from 27 % (31 Jan) to 34 % (17 Feb).

Finance minister Haddad resigns to launch São Paulo governor bid

Fernando Haddad rises to 4%2%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, raising his personal profile and adding a new name to the election field. The announcement lifted Haddad’s market share from 2 % to 4 % and gave a modest bump to Lula’s odds as the administration signalled a broader coalition.

Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his family.

Poll shows Lula leading first-round but tighter runoff scenarios

A new survey by Instituto Ideia published by Canal Meio showed Lula leading in first-round scenarios but facing statistically tied runoff matchups against Bolsonaro-linked candidates, indicating a polarized electorate and tightening race. This contributed to market adjustments reflecting increased uncertainty about Lula's outright win.

Poll shows Lula leads first-round but faces tighter runoffs against Bolsonaro

A poll by Instituto Ideia showed Lula leading first-round scenarios but with narrow margins in runoff matchups against Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a tightening race and increasing uncertainty in the market.

Lula considers adopting anti-establishment discourse for 2026 campaign

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva planned to shift his campaign message to focus on the financial elite and anti-establishment themes, aiming to energize his base and counter right-wing narratives. This strategic move helped stabilize his market position amid a tightening race.

Ceará Senate race turmoil as Camilo Santana auctions off state’s two Senate slots

Education Minister Camilo Santana's political maneuvers in Ceará complicated the local political landscape, signaling his potential future candidacy and affecting local support dynamics, but with limited direct impact on presidential market prices.

Renan Santos makes surprising gains in latest party poll

Renan Santos rises to 7%2%

The Mission Party released new polling data showing Renan Santos capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with established political forces, leading to a notable increase in his support. This contributed to his price rise in the market as a credible right-wing alternative.

President Lula to undergo cataract surgery on 30 January

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%

Lula announced he would undergo cataract surgery on 30 January, an event that briefly shifted public attention and coincided with a small dip in his price from 55 % (Jan 6) to 53 % (Jan 13).

President Lula undergoes successful cataract surgery

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%2%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had cataract surgery on his left eye, which was successful and allowed him to continue his campaign activities without health concerns. This medical update reassured supporters and maintained his market confidence around 54% to 52%.

President Lula undergoes left‑eye cataract surgery

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%

Lula underwent cataract surgery on his left eye; a brief hospital stay generated media coverage but had little measurable impact on his market price, which remained around 55 % before the procedure and 53 % a week later.

President Lula to have cataract surgery on Jan 30

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%

The Planalto Palace announced Lula would undergo cataract surgery on January 30, a routine health update that reduced his perceived fitness for a fourth term and coincided with a 3‑point drop in his market price (from 55 % on Jan 6 to 52 % on Jan 21).

Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.

President Lula to have cataract surgery on 30 January

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 51%2%

The president announced he would undergo cataract surgery on 30 January. The news was widely covered and led traders to view Lula as temporarily less active on the campaign trail, pulling his price from 53 % on 1 Jan to 51 % by 9 Jan, a dip that marked the earliest trough in the dataset.

Flávio Bolsonaro baptized again in the Jordan River amid campaign efforts

Flávio Bolsonaro underwent a symbolic baptism in the Jordan River, a move seen as an effort to strengthen his image and appeal to conservative and religious voters. This event coincided with continued polling gains and political consolidation.

Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil’s finance minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, signaling his political ambitions and potential as Lula’s successor, which affected his market support and Lula’s dynamics.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%7%

The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and affecting public and market views on his status.

Lula backs Panama’s sovereignty and neutrality of the Panama Canal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%3%

Lula reiterated Brazil’s support for Panama’s sovereignty over the Panama Canal. The statement reminded markets of Lula’s active foreign‑policy agenda and coincided with a modest dip in his price from 53 % (27 Jan) to 50 % (5 Feb).

Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado joins PSD, becomes party’s presidential hopeful

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 3%2%

Caiado announced his departure from Brazil Union and his registration with the Social Democratic Party (PSD), positioning himself as the PSD’s presidential candidate. The party switch gave him a national platform and lifted his market share from 1 % to 3 % before it fell back to 1 % later in May.

Ronaldo Caiado switches to PSD and launches presidential bid

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 7%2%

Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union for PSD and was selected as PSD's presidential candidate, increasing his visibility and market price as a right-wing contender.

Ronaldo Caiado switches parties to PSD and declares presidential run

Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his intention to run for president. This move was seen as an attempt to offer a non-Bolsonaro right-wing alternative and caused his market price to rise, despite losing Brazil Union's campaign resources.

Ronaldo Caiado switches parties and announces presidential candidacy

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%

Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his presidential candidacy. This move caused a shift in market support, with Caiado's price initially rising then falling as the right-wing field fragmented.

Ronaldo Caiado switches parties to PSD, announces presidential bid

Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 15%10%

Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his intention to run for president, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and causing his market price to rise.

Ronaldo Caiado considers leaving União Brasil to run for president

Caiado announced he might leave his party União Brasil to seek the presidency, negotiating with PSD, Podemos, and Republicanos. He advocated for multiple right-wing candidates to challenge Lula, impacting his market price positively.

Ronaldo Caiado switches to PSD and announces presidential bid

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 3%2%

Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and confirmed his presidential ambitions, causing a short-term rise in his market price as voters reassessed his viability.

Governor Ronaldo Caiado leaves Brazil Union for PSD, launches presidential bid

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 3%2%

Caiado announced his switch from Brazil Union to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and confirmed his presidential ambitions. The party‑change news sparked a short‑term rise in his market price from 1 % (early Jan) to 3 % on 2 Feb, before the later decline to 2 % in late‑May, reflecting the volatile reaction of his base.

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in runoff for first time

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%4%

A poll indicated Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in a potential runoff, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment and boosting market confidence in Flávio's chances. This contributed to a peak in Flávio's market price around this date.

Flávio Bolsonaro says his presidential bid is ‘irreversible’ after father’s endorsement

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 22%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced that his candidacy was “irreversible” after a meeting with his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The declaration spurred a market rally, raising Flávio’s price from 16 % (20 Jan) to 22 % (30 Jan).

Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%11%

Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, boosting Flávio's market price significantly as he became the main challenger to Lula.

São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas pledges support to Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%9%

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas publicly committed to supporting Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, reducing fragmentation on the right and strengthening Flávio's candidacy. This political endorsement helped sustain Flávio's rising market odds.

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as main challenger to Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 28%12%

A Datafolha poll revealed a tight race between incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with both candidates polling around 45%, solidifying Flávio Bolsonaro's position as the main opposition candidate and impacting market prices.

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as main challenger to Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%9%

New polling data revealed Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground on Lula, solidifying his position as the main opposition candidate. This polling shift caused a significant increase in Flávio Bolsonaro's market price from 16% to around 25%.

Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as main challenger in Brazil presidential election poll

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%9%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro gained ground on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, solidifying his position as the main opposition candidate ahead of the October vote, causing his market price to rise sharply.

Education Minister Camilo Santana flags poor performance at nearly one-third of medical schools

Camilo Santana, Minister of Education, released data showing poor performance in many medical schools, emphasizing quality control and transparency, which raised his political profile but had limited direct impact on presidential market prices.

Education Minister Camilo Santana releases poor medical school performance data

Camilo Santana rises to 2%1%

Camilo Santana, Minister of Education, announced results of the first ENAMED exam showing poor performance in nearly one-third of Brazilian medical schools, emphasizing quality control and transparency. This raised Santana's national profile and slightly increased his market support from 1% to 2%.

Minister Camilo Santana releases poor medical school performance data

Camilo Santana rises to 2%1%

Education Minister Camilo Santana announced results of the ENAMED exam showing poor performance in nearly one-third of Brazilian medical schools, emphasizing quality control. This event raised his national profile but had limited direct impact on his presidential odds.

Fernando Haddad resigns as Finance Minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a campaign for governor of São Paulo, effectively ending his presidential bid and causing a sharp drop in his market support from over 50% to around 3%.

Ministry of Education flags poor performance at nearly one-third of medical schools

Minister of Education Camilo Santana announced results of the first National Medical Training Assessment Exam (ENAMED), highlighting quality concerns in medical education. This event underscored Santana's role but did not significantly boost his presidential prospects, reflected in his low market support.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces resignation to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Fernando Haddad confirmed he would leave his role as Finance Minister to launch a campaign for governor of São Paulo, effectively ending his presidential bid and causing a sharp drop in his market price.

Poll shows Lula leads but faces narrowing edge against Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%3%

A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in first- and second-round scenarios but with a reduced margin, reflecting a competitive race and supporting Lula's market price stabilizing around 53%.

Lula meets EU leaders in Rio to discuss Mercosur‑EU trade pact

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 48%2%

President Lula met EU officials in Rio to discuss the EU‑Mercosur trade agreement. The high‑profile diplomatic win boosted Lula’s image and helped raise his market price from 48 % (early Jan) to 50 % by early Feb, contributing to the modest upward trend seen in his price curve.

Jair Bolsonaro transferred to prison with better conditions by Supreme Court order

The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger prison cell with better accommodations, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that kept Bolsonaro in the political spotlight but did not improve his electoral prospects.

Jair Bolsonaro transferred to larger prison cell with better conditions

Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with outdoor area, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that influenced market perceptions of Bolsonaro's political future.

Brazil’s Supreme Court orders transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to prison with better conditions

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 13%3%

The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a more comfortable prison cell, a development that influenced market perceptions of his incarceration status and indirectly affected Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign momentum.

Brazilian judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 18%3%

A judge issued house arrest orders for several Bolsonaro allies convicted in the coup plot, highlighting ongoing legal pressures on Bolsonaro's circle and influencing market perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.

Lula undergoes cataract surgery

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%

Lula disclosed that he underwent cataract surgery in Brasília, raising concerns about his health but also demonstrating his ability to continue campaigning. The market dipped 3 percentage points in the days that followed.

Michelle Bolsonaro backs Tarcísio de Freitas, hints at split with Flávio

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro posted a video endorsing São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and criticizing President Lula’s economic policy. The move was interpreted as a split with her son Flávio, signalling internal right‑wing rifts and nudging her own market price up from 0 % to 1 % (the smallest rise recorded).

Poll shows Lula leading right-wing rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%

A January poll showed President Lula leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and other right-wing rivals in voting intentions for the 2026 election, reinforcing Lula's position as the frontrunner and influencing market prices accordingly.

Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in New 2026 Presidential Election Poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%2%

A new Quaest poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a solid lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in both first-round and run-off scenarios, stabilizing Lula's high odds.

Lula maintains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in early 2026 poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%4%

A January poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status early in the election cycle. This helped keep Lula's market price relatively high at the start of the year.

Lula maintains lead as Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates opposition in polls

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%

A Genial/Quaest poll in January 2026 showed Lula maintaining a strong lead in first-round voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro solidified his position as the main opposition candidate, with his price rising to 15%. This reflected growing recognition of Flávio's campaign and Lula's steady support.

Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas in early 2026 race

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%3%

A Quaest poll released in mid-January showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in voting intentions, setting the initial market expectations for the election.

Genial/Quaest Poll Shows Lula Maintaining Lead as Margins Narrow Slightly

A new Genial/Quaest poll showed President Lula maintaining his lead over right-wing rivals, though his margin over Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed slightly to 45%-38% in a runoff scenario.

Lula maintains lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in new poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%3%

A January poll confirmed President Lula's continued lead over Flavio Bolsonaro, with Lula holding around 44-45% support and Bolsonaro around 27-38%. This reinforced Lula's frontrunner status and showed Bolsonaro's growing but still trailing support.

Lula leads Flávio by nine points in Jan 2026 Quaest poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%

A Reuters‑quoted Quaest poll released on 14 January showed Lula leading Flávio by 9 percentage points (40 % vs 31 %). The poll reinforced Lula’s lead and helped stabilize his market price around 53 %, ending the early‑year volatility.

Michelle Bolsonaro signals break with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%

Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro publicly shared a video endorsing São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and criticizing Lula’s economic policy, signaling internal divisions within the Bolsonaro camp and affecting right-wing dynamics.

Lula leads early 2026 presidential polls over Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%3%

A January poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in voting intentions, supporting Lula's stable market price and Flávio's moderate position in the race.

Audio leak scandal damages Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign prospects

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 15%5%

In May-June 2026, leaked audios of Flávio Bolsonaro soliciting funds from a banker under investigation caused a drop in his market price, reflecting eroded support and renewed doubts about his candidacy.

Renan Santos begins campaign tour in Pernambuco consolidating candidacy

Renan Santos rises to 6%1%

On January 9, 2026, Renan Santos started a political tour in Pernambuco to consolidate his presidential candidacy, which corresponded with a slight market price recovery after a steep decline.

Lula vetoes bill reducing Bolsonaro’s sentence

Fernando Haddad dips to 3%1%

President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced former President Jair Bolsonaro’s prison sentence. The hard‑line move boosted Lula’s odds and pushed Haddad’s price down from 4 % to 3 % as market participants saw the left‑wing coalition consolidating around Lula.

President Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%3%

On the third anniversary of the 2023 riots, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his failed coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's legal challenges and impacting perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.

Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro's prison time

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his 2023 coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's tough stance on Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.

Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time

President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's continued incarceration and diminishing any market optimism for his political comeback.

Flávio Bolsonaro announces plan to name finance minister before election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 23%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro signaled a pro-market agenda by planning to announce his finance minister early, aiming to reassure markets and strengthen his presidential campaign. This move was intended to boost his viability as a candidate and market confidence.

Flávio Bolsonaro to announce finance minister before election to signal pro-market agenda

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 17%1%

Flávio Bolsonaro stated he would announce his finance minister before the 2026 election to reassure markets of a pro-market economic agenda, aiming to improve his viability as a candidate and gain market confidence.

Flávio Bolsonaro announces finance minister pick ahead of election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister before the 2026 election, signaling a pro-market agenda and aiming to reassure investors about his economic policies. This announcement boosted his candidacy's credibility and market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro to announce finance minister before election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%9%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister ahead of the election to signal a pro-market economic agenda, aiming to reassure investors and improve his campaign's credibility amid rising poll numbers.

Flávio Bolsonaro Pledges Early Finance Minister Announcement to Reassure Markets

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 17%1%

In an effort to calm financial markets and project a pro-market agenda, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would name his finance minister before the election.

Central Bank keeps interest rates at 15%, slowing economic growth

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%

The Banco Central do Brasil maintained high interest rates in January 2026, which contributed to economic deceleration and weighed against Lula's re-election prospects, reflected in a dip in his market price.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 5%47%

Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential election odds as he shifted focus to state politics, which was reflected in a sharp decline in his market price.

Lula announces Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for re-election

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin would run again as his running mate in the 2026 election, solidifying his ticket and maintaining coalition stability, which helped stabilize his market position.

Bolsonaro returns to jail after hernia surgery in Brasilia

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%5%

After undergoing double hernia surgery, Bolsonaro was released from hospital and returned to jail, maintaining his incarceration status and limiting his political activity, which influenced market perceptions and kept his family's candidacies under scrutiny.

Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance

Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%

A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.

Flávio Bolsonaro faces challenges due to family unpopularity

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 18%3%

Polls showed 70% of independent voters rejecting any Bolsonaro family member, limiting Flávio Bolsonaro's appeal despite his moderate positioning, causing market volatility in his support around late December.

Real slides as polls lift Flávio Bolsonaro’s election odds

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 23%11%

A Bloomberg report on the Brazilian real’s weakening after a poll showing Flávio gaining ground sparked a rapid price jump for Flávio from 12 % to 23 % on 28 Dec, the highest level in the analysis window.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Jair Bolsonaro to larger prison cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%

The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a more comfortable prison cell with better facilities, which was part of ongoing legal and health developments affecting his political viability and indirectly influencing market perceptions of his and his family's electoral prospects.

Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy gains momentum in polls

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%

Following the announcement of his candidacy, Flávio Bolsonaro's market probability surged from 1% to 10%, reflecting increased public and political attention on his campaign as a serious contender against Lula.

Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital

Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 1%10%

Bolsonaro underwent a successful double hernia surgery, temporarily affecting his political activity and public perception. His health issues and imprisonment status contributed to market uncertainty, impacting his and related candidates' probabilities.

Supreme Electoral Tribunal extends deadline for candidate registration to December 26, 2025

The TSE extended the deadline for candidate registration for subnational elections, impacting the overall electoral calendar and candidate confirmations. This procedural update likely contributed to some market stabilization and minor price adjustments as candidates finalized their registrations.

Jair Bolsonaro appoints son Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro wrote a letter appointing his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, signaling a direct challenge to incumbent Lula and boosting Flávio's market probability from near zero to double digits.

Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.

Jailed Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid during hospital stay

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%5%

While undergoing surgery, Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio's 2026 presidential campaign, reinforcing Flávio's position as the far-right candidate and contributing to his market price increase.

Jair Bolsonaro confirms Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential pre-candidate in letter

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%7%

Jair Bolsonaro publicly confirmed in a letter that he officially endorses his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the pre-candidate for president in 2026, reinforcing Flávio's legitimacy and market position.

Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio Bolsonaro's 2026 presidential bid from hospital

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%7%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy during a hospital stay, further boosting Flávio's market price from 11% to 18% and consolidating his position as the main right-wing candidate.

Jailed Jair Bolsonaro Formally Endorses Son Flávio in Handwritten Letter

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 20%3%

From a hospital in Brasilia, jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio's 2026 presidential bid in a handwritten letter, removing lingering doubts about his backing.

Renan Santos launches presidential campaign with anti-corruption platform

Renan Santos, leader of the newly formed Mission Party, announced his presidential candidacy focusing on fighting corruption and organized crime. His campaign attracted some attention but did not significantly move his market price, which remained around 6%.

Flávio Bolsonaro pledges moderate campaign with market-friendly policies

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro outlined plans for a presidential campaign focused on moderation of his family's legacy, smaller government, tax cuts, and privatizations. This positioning aimed to appeal to business leaders and moderate conservatives, supporting his rising market price.

Datafolha poll gives Lula 9‑point lead over Flávio after scandal

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 26%5%

A Datafolha poll on 22 May showed Lula extending his lead to 9 pp (40 % vs 31 % for Flávio) after the “Dark Horse” scandal, maintaining Flávio’s price around the low‑20 % range.

President Lula warns against armed intervention in Venezuela

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned that a U.S. armed intervention in Venezuela would be a humanitarian catastrophe, emphasizing regional sovereignty. This statement reinforced Lula's foreign policy profile but had limited direct effect on election odds.

Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%

Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.

Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery

Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%

With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.

President Lula warns against US armed intervention in Venezuela at Mercosur summit

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned that a US military intervention in Venezuela would be a humanitarian catastrophe, emphasizing regional sovereignty and impacting his political image positively among leftist voters.

Right-wing fragmentation as Bolsonaro endorsement fails to unite opposition

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%

Following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro, right-wing leaders expressed skepticism and fragmentation increased, with other candidates like Renan Santos gaining attention. This dynamic affected Flávio Bolsonaro's polling ceiling and market prices.

Right-wing fragmentation as Flávio Bolsonaro faces resistance within his own camp

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 15%3%

Despite Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, Flávio Bolsonaro faced lukewarm support and resistance from other right-wing politicians and family members, causing volatility in his market price.

Bolsonaro endorses Flávio Bolsonaro as 2026 presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%8%

From a hospital bed, former President Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidential election, solidifying Flávio's position as the main right-wing candidate and boosting his market price.

Right-wing opposition fragmented despite Bolsonaro endorsement

Despite Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing opposition remained fragmented with lukewarm support for Flávio from other politicians and family members, emboldening other right-wing presidential hopefuls and causing market uncertainty.

Atlas/Bloomberg poll puts Lula ahead of Flávio in both rounds

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 55%10%

An Atlas/Bloomberg poll released on 19 May showed Lula leading both rounds with 47 % (first) and 48.9 % (second) against Flávio, pushing his market price from 45 % to 55 % by 15 June.

Flávio Bolsonaro declares pre‑candidacy with father’s backing

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%

In a televised interview, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced his official pre‑candidacy with his father’s endorsement, sparking a rapid rise in his market price from 1 % to 10 % within a week.

Bolsonaro surname seen as liability; Renan Santos gains right-wing support

Renan Santos jumps to 10%5%

Reports highlighted the unpopularity of the Bolsonaro family name, with many voters rejecting candidates supported by Jair Bolsonaro. This environment opened space for Renan Santos, a young right-wing candidate, to gain traction, especially among younger voters, reflected in his rising market price.

Right-wing opposition fragmentation emerges amid lukewarm response to Flávio Bolsonaro

Renan Santos jumps to 10%5%

Despite Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy, the right-wing opposition remained fragmented with other figures like Renan Santos gaining attention. This fragmentation was reflected in the market by a rise in Renan Santos's price from 5% to 10% in early December and a continued increase in Flávio Bolsonaro's price, indicating uncertainty and competition within the conservative bloc.

Right-wing fragmentation as Flávio Bolsonaro struggles to unite Brazil's right

Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%

Reports highlighted the lukewarm response to Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy among right-wing politicians and voters, leading to fragmentation and a collapse in support for Renan Santos from 50% to under 10%, reflecting market price drops.

Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio for 2026 presidency

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%10%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the right‑wing candidate. The endorsement lifted Flávio’s odds dramatically, lifting his price from 2 % to 12 % between 29 Nov and 7 Dec 2025.

Supreme Court permits probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamation

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%

Brazil’s Supreme Court allowed a probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamation of President Lula, causing his market price to jump from 1 % to 13 % later in December as the controversy raised his visibility.

Right-wing fragmentation opens space for Renan Santos candidacy

Renan Santos rises to 8%2%

Political analysts noted that Flávio Bolsonaro's unpopularity and right-wing fragmentation created an opening for Renan Santos, boosting his candidacy and market price amid concerns about opposition unity against Lula.

Fragmentation on Brazil's right opens space for Renan Santos as alternative

Renan Santos rises to 7%3%

Reports highlighted the fragmented right-wing opposition with lukewarm support for Flávio Bolsonaro, boosting interest in Renan Santos as an anti-corruption candidate, reflected in his market price rising from 4% to 7%.

Finance Minister Haddad to resign in February, ending presidential speculation

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced he would leave the government in February 2026 to help Lula’s campaign, effectively ending his presidential bid. Traders cut Haddad’s price from around 52 % on 18 Sept to 3 % by 1 Oct, reflecting the market’s reaction to his exit from the race.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirms he will leave government to support Lula's 2026 campaign

Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%

Fernando Haddad announced his intention to leave the finance ministry in February 2026 to collaborate with Lula's re-election campaign, causing his market price to drop sharply from 52% to 2%.

AtlasIntel Poll Shows Renan Santos Gaining Ground Among Gen Z Voters

Renan Santos rises to 8%1%

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed right-wing activist Renan Santos polling in second place among voters aged 16 to 24, boosting his profile as a potential alternative right-wing candidate.

Finance Minister Haddad announces he will leave government to support Lula's campaign

Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%

Fernando Haddad declared he would leave his finance minister post in February 2026 to help Lula's reelection campaign, effectively ending his own presidential bid and causing his market price to plummet from 52% to 2%.

Lula confirms bid for a historic fourth presidential term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 53%5%

President Lula publicly confirmed that he will run for a fourth, non‑consecutive term. The announcement gave the incumbent a clear lead in the market, pushing his price from 48 % to 53 % by early January 2026.

Bloomberg poll: Lula far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 60%10%

A Bloomberg poll released on 18 December showed Lula ahead of Flávio by a large margin, reinforcing his lead and nudging his market price up from 50 % to a peak of 60 % early November.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces he will leave government to support Lula's campaign

Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%

Haddad confirmed his intention to leave the finance ministry in February 2026 to help Lula's re-election campaign, effectively ending his own presidential bid and causing his market price to drop sharply from 52% to 2%.

Poll shows Lula far ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in 2026 race

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 50%2%

A December poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading significantly over Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing Lula's position as the frontrunner despite Bolsonaro's rising candidacy. This helped stabilize Lula's market price while highlighting the competitive challenge from Bolsonaro.

Renan Santos gains attention as MBL's presidential candidate for 2026

Renan Santos plunges to 7%43%

Renan Santos, leader of the Movimento Brasil Livre (MBL), was confirmed as the presidential candidate for the newly authorized Partido Missão, gaining some support especially among younger voters, reflected in his initial market price.

Fernando Haddad announces plan to leave Ministry of Finance to support Lula's campaign

Fernando Haddad dips to 2%1%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad declared his intention to leave his post by February 2026 to focus on Lula's re-election campaign, signaling consolidation of Lula's political support and causing Haddad's market price to drop.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad rules out 2026 presidential run

Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%

Fernando Haddad, a prominent figure speculated to run, confirmed he would not run for public office in 2026 and would instead support Lula's campaign, leading to a sharp decline in his market price from over 50% to around 2%.

Poll shows Lula leads first- and second-round scenarios for 2026 election

A Genial/Quaest poll confirmed Lula's lead in both first and second rounds, with Flávio Bolsonaro ranking second, reinforcing Lula's front-runner status but indicating a competitive race.

Lula leads first‑ and second‑round scenarios in 2026 poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 59%3%

A Valor International poll released on 2025‑12‑17 showed Lula leading both first‑round and runoff scenarios, reinforcing his market price at 59 % on 2025‑11‑03 and keeping it above 50 % throughout December.

Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio's presidential bid from hospital

Former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio's 2026 presidential campaign while undergoing surgery, reinforcing Flávio's position and supporting his market price around 16%.

Datafolha poll shows voters reject Bolsonaro‑backed candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 10%10%

A Datafolha poll conducted days after the endorsement showed the majority of voters would not vote for a candidate backed by Jair Bolsonaro, dampening Flávio’s momentum and causing his price to fall sharply.

Poll shows Lula leading, causing market jitters and asset sell-off

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 48%11%

A poll published on December 16, 2025, showed President Lula ahead in the election, which led to a slump in Brazilian markets as investors grew wary of the economic outlook under his continued leadership.

Genial/Quaest poll tests Flávio Bolsonaro for the first time

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%7%

Following his official pre-candidacy announcement, a Genial/Quaest poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro ranking second behind Lula, consolidating his position as the primary right-wing challenger.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially announces presidential pre-candidacy

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 20%19%

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the imprisoned former president, announced his pre-candidacy for president, mobilizing the Liberal Party's evangelical and rural networks, which led to a significant rise in his market price from 1% to 20%.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied, jolting markets

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%

A Quaest poll showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a potential runoff, causing market volatility and a rise in Flávio's market price as the race tightened.

Poll shows Lula leads first- and second-round scenarios for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 50%2%

A Genial/Quaest poll released mid-December showed President Lula leading in both first and second-round scenarios against Flávio Bolsonaro and other candidates. Lula's strong polling supported his market price around 48-50%, reinforcing his frontrunner status.

Datafolha poll puts Lula ahead, markets slump on fiscal‑risk fears

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%

A Datafolha poll released on 16 Dec 2025 showed Lula ahead of all rivals. The market interpreted the poll as a signal that Lula’s fiscal agenda could tighten, causing his price to fall from 55 % to 42 % in two days.

Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground, jolting markets

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%8%

A poll revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's rising support, causing market volatility with stock declines and currency gains as investors reassessed his chances against Lula. The poll also indicated high rejection rates for Bolsonaro, suggesting uncertainty about his candidacy's viability.

Markets react negatively to Lula's lead in election polls

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 48%1%

A poll showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in the 2026 election caused Brazilian markets to slump, reflecting investor wariness about Lula's economic policies and the election outlook. This event coincided with Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy announcement, influencing market sentiment.

Genial/Quaest Poll Shows Lula Leading Flávio Bolsonaro in Runoff Scenarios

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 50%4%

A newly released Genial/Quaest poll showed President Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 36% in a hypothetical second-round matchup, highlighting the challenges facing the Bolsonaro family's bid.

Flávio Bolsonaro ramps up campaign after father returns to prison

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%8%

Following Jair Bolsonaro’s return to prison after his hernia operation, Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned actively on television, further raising his profile and pushing his probability up to 16 % by late December.

Flávio Bolsonaro re‑affirms candidacy after price‑talk controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 12%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro re‑affirmed his commitment to stay in the race after critics accused him of “putting a price” on his candidacy; the clarification halted a brief price drop and sent his market price back up to about 12 %.

Flávio Bolsonaro retracts “price” comment on abandoning campaign

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

Flávio Bolsonaro claimed he could withdraw from the race for a “price”, then retracted the comment, generating a brief market dip for Flávio (down to 1 %) and a modest rebound for Luiz Lula as the scandal faded.

Flávio Bolsonaro re‑asserts run despite ‘price’ controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 16%15%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly re‑affirmed his candidacy after criticism for allegedly suggesting a “price” to exit the race. The statement slowed his price decline, keeping it around 16 % through January 2026.

Flávio Bolsonaro retracts suggestion of exiting race for a price

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly reaffirmed his commitment to run for president after suggesting he might exit the race for the right price, stabilizing his candidacy and market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirms irreversible presidential run despite controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 16%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirmed his commitment to run for president in 2026, walking back earlier remarks about possibly stepping aside, which stabilized his market price around 16%.

Flávio Bolsonaro confirms definitive presidential pre-candidacy for 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro publicly affirmed his firm commitment to run for president in 2026, signaling a serious challenge to Lula and causing his market price to rise sharply.

Flávio Bolsonaro confirms irreversible decision to run for president in 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 12%1%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly confirmed his commitment to run for president in 2026, reaffirming his candidacy and solidifying his position as the main challenger to Lula, which supported his market price rise.

Flávio Bolsonaro Declares Presidential Candidacy Irreversible

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 14%3%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro clarified that his decision to run is irreversible unless his father is freed and allowed on the ballot, solidifying his status as a candidate.

Flávio Bolsonaro confirms irreversible presidential run despite controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 15%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirmed his commitment to run for president in 2026 after suggesting he might step aside, clarifying he would only do so if his father was freed and running, stabilizing his candidacy and market support.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio's presidential bid from prison

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%5%

Jair Bolsonaro, imprisoned and barred from public office, formally endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy for president in 2026. This endorsement solidified Flávio's position as the far-right Liberal Party's candidate and boosted his campaign's credibility, contributing to further price gains.

Lula announces Fernando Haddad as Minister of Economy in new government

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Lula's announcement of Fernando Haddad as Minister of Economy reinforced Haddad's political relevance but did not translate into sustained market support, as Haddad's election chances declined significantly afterward.

Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirms irreversible decision to run for president

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%6%

After initial speculation that he might withdraw, Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed his decision to run for president is irreversible, solidifying his campaign and maintaining his rising market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro confirms presidential run despite controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%

Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirmed his commitment to run for president in 2026 despite criticism over his earlier suggestion of dropping out for a 'price'. This solidified his position as the main right-wing candidate after his father Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment and endorsement.

Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential run, boosting his market support

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%

Flávio Bolsonaro's entry into the presidential race caused a sharp increase in his market price as he gained recognition as a right-wing contender, reflecting shifting dynamics in the opposition.

Flávio Bolsonaro suggests a 'price' to withdraw from 2026 race

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 16%4%

Shortly after announcing his candidacy, Flávio Bolsonaro stated he had a 'price' to withdraw from the race, interpreted as linked to his father's imprisonment. This created uncertainty around his campaign but he later reaffirmed commitment, causing market volatility.

Flávio Bolsonaro's bid triggers strategic shake-up on the right

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy caused recalculations among right-wing leaders, with some governors confirming their own presidential runs and others reconsidering their strategies. The move was seen as potentially benefiting Lula by splitting the opposition vote.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s São Paulo rally goes viral

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%

A Reuters video of Flávio Bolsonaro’s rally in São Paulo was widely shared, boosting his public profile. The surge helped his market price climb from 1 % to 10 % in the following days.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy announcement triggers market sell-off