Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or separated by just a few points in first-round scenarios, with Lula typically at 38-40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33-37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This positioning favors narrow victory margins under 10 percent for the top candidate, as the polarized electorate, economic pressures, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son sustain a competitive race ahead of the October 4 vote. A film-funding controversy involving Flávio Bolsonaro has drawn recent scrutiny without yet altering the overall polling trajectory, while trader consensus reflects the historical volatility of Brazilian first-round outcomes and the potential for late endorsements or economic data to narrow or widen the gap further.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%
$231,585 Vol.
$231,585 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
32%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
16%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
1%
Other
21%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%
$231,585 Vol.
$231,585 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
32%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
16%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,567 Vol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 Vol.
1%
Other
$2,258 Vol.
21%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or separated by just a few points in first-round scenarios, with Lula typically at 38-40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33-37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This positioning favors narrow victory margins under 10 percent for the top candidate, as the polarized electorate, economic pressures, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son sustain a competitive race ahead of the October 4 vote. A film-funding controversy involving Flávio Bolsonaro has drawn recent scrutiny without yet altering the overall polling trajectory, while trader consensus reflects the historical volatility of Brazilian first-round outcomes and the potential for late endorsements or economic data to narrow or widen the gap further.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$231,585শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or separated by just a few points in first-round scenarios, with Lula typically at 38-40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33-37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This positioning favors narrow victory margins under 10 percent for the top candidate, as the polarized electorate, economic pressures, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son sustain a competitive race ahead of the October 4 vote. A film-funding controversy involving Flávio Bolsonaro has drawn recent scrutiny without yet altering the overall polling trajectory, while trader consensus reflects the historical volatility of Brazilian first-round outcomes and the potential for late endorsements or economic data to narrow or widen the gap further.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ভলিউম
$231,585শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or separated by just a few points in first-round scenarios, with Lula typically at 38-40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33-37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This positioning favors narrow victory margins under 10 percent for the top candidate, as the polarized electorate, economic pressures, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son sustain a competitive race ahead of the October 4 vote. A film-funding controversy involving Flávio Bolsonaro has drawn recent scrutiny without yet altering the overall polling trajectory, while trader consensus reflects the historical volatility of Brazilian first-round outcomes and the potential for late endorsements or economic data to narrow or widen the gap further.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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