Recent polls from mid-August 2026 show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 38–42 percent against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 31–35 percent, producing a typical gap of 5–10 points ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula’s incumbency, Workers’ Party nomination, and consistent polling edge support the leading market outcomes on his margin, while fragmented opposition keeps other candidates in single digits. Flávio’s position as the main right-wing contender, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, underpins the secondary probabilities attached to narrower or wider Lula leads. Minor recent setbacks for Flávio, including June audio releases and a family dispute since reconciled, have not shifted the overall first-round structure. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short timeline to election day.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 37%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 9.1%
$323,323 Vol.
$323,323 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
37%
Lula da Silva <5%
21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Renan Santos Victory
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 37%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 9.1%
$323,323 Vol.
$323,323 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$12,152 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$26,843 Vol.
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$18,154 Vol.
37%
Lula da Silva <5%
$19,690 Vol.
21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$6,355 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$6,104 Vol.
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$10,490 Vol.
6%
Renan Santos Victory
$210,825 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$3,532 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,155 Vol.
<1%
Other
$5,022 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-August 2026 show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 38–42 percent against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 31–35 percent, producing a typical gap of 5–10 points ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula’s incumbency, Workers’ Party nomination, and consistent polling edge support the leading market outcomes on his margin, while fragmented opposition keeps other candidates in single digits. Flávio’s position as the main right-wing contender, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, underpins the secondary probabilities attached to narrower or wider Lula leads. Minor recent setbacks for Flávio, including June audio releases and a family dispute since reconciled, have not shifted the overall first-round structure. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short timeline to election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$323,323শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-August 2026 show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 38–42 percent against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 31–35 percent, producing a typical gap of 5–10 points ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula’s incumbency, Workers’ Party nomination, and consistent polling edge support the leading market outcomes on his margin, while fragmented opposition keeps other candidates in single digits. Flávio’s position as the main right-wing contender, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, underpins the secondary probabilities attached to narrower or wider Lula leads. Minor recent setbacks for Flávio, including June audio releases and a family dispute since reconciled, have not shifted the overall first-round structure. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short timeline to election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ভলিউম
$323,323শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from mid-August 2026 show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 38–42 percent against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 31–35 percent, producing a typical gap of 5–10 points ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula’s incumbency, Workers’ Party nomination, and consistent polling edge support the leading market outcomes on his margin, while fragmented opposition keeps other candidates in single digits. Flávio’s position as the main right-wing contender, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, underpins the secondary probabilities attached to narrower or wider Lula leads. Minor recent setbacks for Flávio, including June audio releases and a family dispute since reconciled, have not shifted the overall first-round structure. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short timeline to election day.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডসম্পর্কিত
ফ্লাভিও বোলসোনারো কি ২০২৬ ব্রাজিলিয়ান প্রেসিডেন্ট নির্বাচনের প্রথম দফায় দ্বিতীয় স্থানে শেষ করবেন?
85%
হ্যাঁ
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
55%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
44%
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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