Governor Romeu Zema leads trader consensus for third place in Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round at 39.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Renan Santos at 31.5%, reflecting recent polls showing a fragmented center-right field behind frontrunners President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (37-46%) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (33-40%). Early May surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data tie Zema and Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado at 4-5%, while Renan Santos dipped to 2-3% after a late-April AtlasIntel peak of 5.3%; Caiado trails at 17% odds due to weaker national appeal beyond Centro-Oeste. Low vote shares (3-6%) amplify volatility from regional bases—Zema's Southeast strength versus Santos' activist surge—keeping the contest tight. Party conventions by August and endorsements could consolidate support, tipping the balance ahead of a likely Lula-Bolsonaro runoff.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডRomeu Zema 40%
Renan Santos 32%
Ronaldo Caiado 17%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.5%
$278,910 Vol.
$278,910 Vol.

Romeu Zema
40%

Renan Santos
32%

Ronaldo Caiado
17%

Michelle Bolsonaro
6%

Flávio Bolsonaro
4%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Eduardo Leite
3%

Tereza Cristina
2%

Helder Barbalho
2%

Camilo Santana
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Aldo Rebelo
1%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Romeu Zema 40%
Renan Santos 32%
Ronaldo Caiado 17%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.5%
$278,910 Vol.
$278,910 Vol.

Romeu Zema
40%

Renan Santos
32%

Ronaldo Caiado
17%

Michelle Bolsonaro
6%

Flávio Bolsonaro
4%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Eduardo Leite
3%

Tereza Cristina
2%

Helder Barbalho
2%

Camilo Santana
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Aldo Rebelo
1%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Governor Romeu Zema leads trader consensus for third place in Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round at 39.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Renan Santos at 31.5%, reflecting recent polls showing a fragmented center-right field behind frontrunners President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (37-46%) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (33-40%). Early May surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data tie Zema and Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado at 4-5%, while Renan Santos dipped to 2-3% after a late-April AtlasIntel peak of 5.3%; Caiado trails at 17% odds due to weaker national appeal beyond Centro-Oeste. Low vote shares (3-6%) amplify volatility from regional bases—Zema's Southeast strength versus Santos' activist surge—keeping the contest tight. Party conventions by August and endorsements could consolidate support, tipping the balance ahead of a likely Lula-Bolsonaro runoff.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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