Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.8%
Kim Kataguiri 4.2%
Erika Hilton 2.2%
$22,105 Vol.
$22,105 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
12%
Kim Kataguiri
4%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.8%
Kim Kataguiri 4.2%
Erika Hilton 2.2%
$22,105 Vol.
$22,105 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,122 Vol.
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 Vol.
12%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,910 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$3,189 Vol.
2%
Márcio França
$2,343 Vol.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
ভলিউম
$22,105শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ভলিউম
$22,105শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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