**Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor, leads the Pernambuco gubernatorial race with strong polling momentum heading into the October 2026 first round.** Recent surveys, including Quaest (Aug 21–24) and Datafolha (Aug 18–20), show her at 44–47% against João Campos (PSB) at 36–40%, with all other candidates—including Ivan Moraes (PSOL)—at 1% or below and high undecided or null shares. Her administration holds 68% approval, reflecting gains from infrastructure, security reductions, and economic management that have converted performance into voter support. The campaign's official start on August 28, with free TV and radio time, has reinforced this edge. Lyra's debut ads emphasize personal trajectory, recent deliveries, and indirect criticism of prior PSB-led governments for leaving the state "unorganized," while highlighting alliances across parties. Campos counters with explicit backing from President Lula, who features in his spots urging votes, though Lyra positions herself as focused on state priorities over national alignments. Trader consensus reflects these trends: Lyra's lead has widened since earlier 2026 surveys when Campos held an advantage, with structural support from mayors and her party's organization favoring a first-round outcome. Minor candidates remain marginal, and resolution hinges on turnout and any late shifts in the closely watched Recife metro area and interior.