Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 51% implied probability in the Bahia governor race, just ahead of ACM Neto of União Brasil at 48.5%, reflecting a rematch shaped by Rodrigues’s recovered approval ratings and Neto’s strength in urban centers. The August 9 debate and recent Genial/Quaest polling showing a technical tie have reinforced the contest’s closeness, as national shifts—including União’s 2025 break with the Lula administration and Neto’s alignment with broader right-wing coalitions—have offset the incumbent’s advantages in education and infrastructure. Traders see limited separation ahead of the October first-round vote without clearer movement in Northeast turnout patterns, municipal endorsements, or further polling swings on security and economic issues.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডJerônimo Rodrigues 51%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,589 Vol.
$107,589 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
51%
ACM Neto
49%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 51%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,589 Vol.
$107,589 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,528 Vol.
51%
ACM Neto
$35,881 Vol.
49%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 51% implied probability in the Bahia governor race, just ahead of ACM Neto of União Brasil at 48.5%, reflecting a rematch shaped by Rodrigues’s recovered approval ratings and Neto’s strength in urban centers. The August 9 debate and recent Genial/Quaest polling showing a technical tie have reinforced the contest’s closeness, as national shifts—including União’s 2025 break with the Lula administration and Neto’s alignment with broader right-wing coalitions—have offset the incumbent’s advantages in education and infrastructure. Traders see limited separation ahead of the October first-round vote without clearer movement in Northeast turnout patterns, municipal endorsements, or further polling swings on security and economic issues.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
ভলিউম
$107,589শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 51% implied probability in the Bahia governor race, just ahead of ACM Neto of União Brasil at 48.5%, reflecting a rematch shaped by Rodrigues’s recovered approval ratings and Neto’s strength in urban centers. The August 9 debate and recent Genial/Quaest polling showing a technical tie have reinforced the contest’s closeness, as national shifts—including União’s 2025 break with the Lula administration and Neto’s alignment with broader right-wing coalitions—have offset the incumbent’s advantages in education and infrastructure. Traders see limited separation ahead of the October first-round vote without clearer movement in Northeast turnout patterns, municipal endorsements, or further polling swings on security and economic issues.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ভলিউম
$107,589শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 51% implied probability in the Bahia governor race, just ahead of ACM Neto of União Brasil at 48.5%, reflecting a rematch shaped by Rodrigues’s recovered approval ratings and Neto’s strength in urban centers. The August 9 debate and recent Genial/Quaest polling showing a technical tie have reinforced the contest’s closeness, as national shifts—including União’s 2025 break with the Lula administration and Neto’s alignment with broader right-wing coalitions—have offset the incumbent’s advantages in education and infrastructure. Traders see limited separation ahead of the October first-round vote without clearer movement in Northeast turnout patterns, municipal endorsements, or further polling swings on security and economic issues.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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