Recent September IPCA data at 4.58% year-over-year, exceeding the 4.50% consensus and lifting the 12-month rate from 4.22% in August, has reinforced trader positioning around the 5.00-5.49% band for full-year 2026 inflation. Upward revisions in the Central Bank’s Focus survey to a 5.01% median, alongside the Copom’s 5.2% projection, reflect persistent pressures from administered prices such as electricity and gasoline, food and beverage costs, and transport amid elevated global oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. The Selic rate at 13.75% after five cuts, with market-implied odds favoring a further 25-basis-point reduction at the November Copom meeting, underscores cautious monetary easing amid de-anchored expectations above the 3% target midpoint. The October 25 presidential runoff and November policy decision remain key near-term catalysts that could influence final-year pricing dynamics.