Recent April 2026 data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest level since mid-2023, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. This combination of resilient labor-market conditions and renewed inflationary pressure has elevated market-implied odds for an overheating scenario at year-end 2026 to 44.5 percent. Traders appear to price in limited further easing in core measures through the balance of the year amid ongoing supply-side shocks, even as the Federal Reserve’s March projections and most private forecasts anticipate unemployment drifting only modestly higher by December. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the next FOMC statement that could clarify the balance between persistent price pressures and any softening in demand.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডSoft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
25%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
43%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
21%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$1,681 Vol.
25%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$439 Vol.
43%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$580 Vol.
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$700 Vol.
21%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest level since mid-2023, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. This combination of resilient labor-market conditions and renewed inflationary pressure has elevated market-implied odds for an overheating scenario at year-end 2026 to 44.5 percent. Traders appear to price in limited further easing in core measures through the balance of the year amid ongoing supply-side shocks, even as the Federal Reserve’s March projections and most private forecasts anticipate unemployment drifting only modestly higher by December. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the next FOMC statement that could clarify the balance between persistent price pressures and any softening in demand.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$3,400শেষ তারিখ
Jan 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest level since mid-2023, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. This combination of resilient labor-market conditions and renewed inflationary pressure has elevated market-implied odds for an overheating scenario at year-end 2026 to 44.5 percent. Traders appear to price in limited further easing in core measures through the balance of the year amid ongoing supply-side shocks, even as the Federal Reserve’s March projections and most private forecasts anticipate unemployment drifting only modestly higher by December. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the next FOMC statement that could clarify the balance between persistent price pressures and any softening in demand.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ভলিউম
$3,400শেষ তারিখ
Jan 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest level since mid-2023, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. This combination of resilient labor-market conditions and renewed inflationary pressure has elevated market-implied odds for an overheating scenario at year-end 2026 to 44.5 percent. Traders appear to price in limited further easing in core measures through the balance of the year amid ongoing supply-side shocks, even as the Federal Reserve’s March projections and most private forecasts anticipate unemployment drifting only modestly higher by December. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the next FOMC statement that could clarify the balance between persistent price pressures and any softening in demand.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা