Market-implied odds place zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a leading 68.5%, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic growth and sticky inflation will keep monetary policy on hold. Recent first-quarter 2026 data releases showing above-target CPI readings and solid nonfarm payroll gains have reinforced expectations for a cautious FOMC stance, consistent with the latest dot plot projecting fewer reductions than previously anticipated. Elevated Treasury yields and steady Fed funds futures pricing further embed this higher-for-longer outlook. Upcoming catalysts, including the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, could alter probabilities if incoming figures reveal faster disinflation or labor-market softening.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 68.5%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 16%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 6%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 1.9%
$26,707,227 Vol.
$26,707,227 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
69%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
16%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
6%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
2%
৪ (১০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
2%
৫ (১২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
1%
৬ (১৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
৭ (১৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
1%
৮ (২০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
৯ (২২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
১০ (২৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
১১ (২৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
১২+ (৩০০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
1%
০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 68.5%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 16%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 6%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 1.9%
$26,707,227 Vol.
$26,707,227 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$4,164,746 Vol.
69%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,243,742 Vol.
16%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,194,848 Vol.
6%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,095,649 Vol.
2%
৪ (১০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,192,715 Vol.
2%
৫ (১২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,409,651 Vol.
1%
৬ (১৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$2,460,285 Vol.
<1%
৭ (১৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,317,147 Vol.
1%
৮ (২০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,710,106 Vol.
<1%
৯ (২২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$2,438,439 Vol.
<1%
১০ (২৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$3,089,364 Vol.
<1%
১১ (২৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$3,249,275 Vol.
<1%
১২+ (৩০০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$2,141,331 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds place zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a leading 68.5%, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic growth and sticky inflation will keep monetary policy on hold. Recent first-quarter 2026 data releases showing above-target CPI readings and solid nonfarm payroll gains have reinforced expectations for a cautious FOMC stance, consistent with the latest dot plot projecting fewer reductions than previously anticipated. Elevated Treasury yields and steady Fed funds futures pricing further embed this higher-for-longer outlook. Upcoming catalysts, including the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, could alter probabilities if incoming figures reveal faster disinflation or labor-market softening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ভলিউম
$26,707,227শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds place zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a leading 68.5%, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic growth and sticky inflation will keep monetary policy on hold. Recent first-quarter 2026 data releases showing above-target CPI readings and solid nonfarm payroll gains have reinforced expectations for a cautious FOMC stance, consistent with the latest dot plot projecting fewer reductions than previously anticipated. Elevated Treasury yields and steady Fed funds futures pricing further embed this higher-for-longer outlook. Upcoming catalysts, including the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, could alter probabilities if incoming figures reveal faster disinflation or labor-market softening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ভলিউম
$26,707,227শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds place zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a leading 68.5%, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic growth and sticky inflation will keep monetary policy on hold. Recent first-quarter 2026 data releases showing above-target CPI readings and solid nonfarm payroll gains have reinforced expectations for a cautious FOMC stance, consistent with the latest dot plot projecting fewer reductions than previously anticipated. Elevated Treasury yields and steady Fed funds futures pricing further embed this higher-for-longer outlook. Upcoming catalysts, including the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, could alter probabilities if incoming figures reveal faster disinflation or labor-market softening.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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