Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$225,212 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 Vol.
3.9%
$44,197 Vol.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Vol.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Vol.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Vol.
5%
3.5%
$32,973 Vol.
4%
3.0%
$917 Vol.
3%
2.0%
$514 Vol.
2%
1.0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
ভলিউম
$225,212শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
ভলিউম
$225,212শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 2.5% core CPI alongside fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil risks have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.6-4.7% in August 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Recent softer July payrolls have trimmed near-term Fed hike odds to about 52% for September, yet the central bank remains patient with policy still viewed as restrictive. Market-implied paths reflect a balance between sticky price pressures and potential easing if labor data weakens further, with yields trading in a 4-4.5% range per consensus outlooks. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, FOMC communications, and Treasury auctions that could shift rate expectations and term premiums.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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