Polymarket traders' 93% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Fed decisions across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings reflects overwhelming consensus after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29 amid an 8–4 dissent vote signaling internal hawkishness. The hotter-than-expected April CPI, released May 12 and showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 98% for no June change. Upcoming June 10–11 and July 28–29 meetings loom, but sustained sticky inflation and resilient labor data anchor positioning; a sharp cooldown in May CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls could challenge this trader sentiment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.2%
Other 3.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$48,688 Vol.
$48,688 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.2%
Other 3.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$48,688 Vol.
$48,688 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,306 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,561 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,605 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' 93% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Fed decisions across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings reflects overwhelming consensus after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29 amid an 8–4 dissent vote signaling internal hawkishness. The hotter-than-expected April CPI, released May 12 and showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 98% for no June change. Upcoming June 10–11 and July 28–29 meetings loom, but sustained sticky inflation and resilient labor data anchor positioning; a sharp cooldown in May CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls could challenge this trader sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$48,688শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' 93% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Fed decisions across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings reflects overwhelming consensus after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29 amid an 8–4 dissent vote signaling internal hawkishness. The hotter-than-expected April CPI, released May 12 and showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 98% for no June change. Upcoming June 10–11 and July 28–29 meetings loom, but sustained sticky inflation and resilient labor data anchor positioning; a sharp cooldown in May CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls could challenge this trader sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$48,688শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' 93% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Fed decisions across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings reflects overwhelming consensus after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29 amid an 8–4 dissent vote signaling internal hawkishness. The hotter-than-expected April CPI, released May 12 and showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, has dashed near-term rate-cut hopes, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 98% for no June change. Upcoming June 10–11 and July 28–29 meetings loom, but sustained sticky inflation and resilient labor data anchor positioning; a sharp cooldown in May CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls could challenge this trader sentiment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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