Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডনতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
ভলিউম
$3,538শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$3,538শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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