Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated inflation readings near 3.3% for both CPI and core PCE have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.27% as of September 2, 2026, reflecting a higher term premium and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt, heavy Treasury supply, and competing corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure continue to pressure the long end, while geopolitical tensions around Iran add upside risks to energy prices and inflation breakevens. Real yields have driven most of the recent backup rather than shifting inflation expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which will clarify the balance between growth resilience and any potential rate adjustment.