Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase alongside energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications and the removal of dovish forward guidance, underpins the 55.5% probability for a hike versus 39.5% for no change. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in tighter policy to address supply shocks and solid economic activity. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with September CPI and labor data, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the path to December.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Vol.
$687,464 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Vol.
$687,464 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,944 Vol.
3%
No change
$136,748 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase alongside energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications and the removal of dovish forward guidance, underpins the 55.5% probability for a hike versus 39.5% for no change. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in tighter policy to address supply shocks and solid economic activity. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with September CPI and labor data, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the path to December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$687,464শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase alongside energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications and the removal of dovish forward guidance, underpins the 55.5% probability for a hike versus 39.5% for no change. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in tighter policy to address supply shocks and solid economic activity. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with September CPI and labor data, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the path to December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$687,464শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase alongside energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications and the removal of dovish forward guidance, underpins the 55.5% probability for a hike versus 39.5% for no change. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in tighter policy to address supply shocks and solid economic activity. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with September CPI and labor data, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the path to December.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা