**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting.** August CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, with core inflation at 2.4%, while the August employment report delivered 162,000 jobs—above consensus—and held unemployment steady at 4.1%. These figures reinforce the hawkish tilt evident since the June 2026 projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, where the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for the end of 2026 and nine of 19 officials anticipated at least one hike this year. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026 amid supply-side pressures, including energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases as near-term catalysts, market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the balance of risks favors modest tightening before year-end rather than an extended pause.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.2%
$685,170 Vol.
$685,170 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.2%
$685,170 Vol.
$685,170 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$101,868 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$154,957 Vol.
3%
No change
$136,664 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,108 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,573 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting.** August CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, with core inflation at 2.4%, while the August employment report delivered 162,000 jobs—above consensus—and held unemployment steady at 4.1%.
These figures reinforce the hawkish tilt evident since the June 2026 projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, where the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for the end of 2026 and nine of 19 officials anticipated at least one hike this year. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026 amid supply-side pressures, including energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions.
With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases as near-term catalysts, market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the balance of risks favors modest tightening before year-end rather than an extended pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$685,170শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting.** August CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, with core inflation at 2.4%, while the August employment report delivered 162,000 jobs—above consensus—and held unemployment steady at 4.1%.
These figures reinforce the hawkish tilt evident since the June 2026 projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, where the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for the end of 2026 and nine of 19 officials anticipated at least one hike this year. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026 amid supply-side pressures, including energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions.
With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases as near-term catalysts, market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the balance of risks favors modest tightening before year-end rather than an extended pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$685,170শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting.** August CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase, with core inflation at 2.4%, while the August employment report delivered 162,000 jobs—above consensus—and held unemployment steady at 4.1%. These figures reinforce the hawkish tilt evident since the June 2026 projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, where the median dot plot shifted to 3.8% for the end of 2026 and nine of 19 officials anticipated at least one hike this year. The current 3.50–3.75% target range has held steady through mid-2026 amid supply-side pressures, including energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases as near-term catalysts, market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that the balance of risks favors modest tightening before year-end rather than an extended pause.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা