Recent Middle East-related energy shocks have kept PCE and CPI inflation elevated above the Fed’s 2% target through mid-2026, supporting a divided FOMC stance at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range and lifting market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike. However, July’s weak nonfarm payrolls and stable 4.1% unemployment have tempered near-term tightening expectations, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities of 43.5% for zero hikes versus 36% for one by year-end. Traders weigh sticky supply-driven price pressures and hawkish dissents against softer labor data and the risk that further cooling could justify a hold, with the September FOMC meeting serving as the next key catalyst for repricing the 2026 rate path.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 47%
1 (25 bps) 36%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 4.3%
$146,433 Vol.
$146,433 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
47%
1 (25 bps)
36%
2 (50 bps)
13%
3 (75 bps)
4%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 47%
1 (25 bps) 36%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 4.3%
$146,433 Vol.
$146,433 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,751 Vol.
47%
1 (25 bps)
$20,693 Vol.
36%
2 (50 bps)
$36,978 Vol.
13%
3 (75 bps)
$17,124 Vol.
4%
4 (100 bps)
$5,557 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,331 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent Middle East-related energy shocks have kept PCE and CPI inflation elevated above the Fed’s 2% target through mid-2026, supporting a divided FOMC stance at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range and lifting market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike. However, July’s weak nonfarm payrolls and stable 4.1% unemployment have tempered near-term tightening expectations, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities of 43.5% for zero hikes versus 36% for one by year-end. Traders weigh sticky supply-driven price pressures and hawkish dissents against softer labor data and the risk that further cooling could justify a hold, with the September FOMC meeting serving as the next key catalyst for repricing the 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
ভলিউম
$146,433শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent Middle East-related energy shocks have kept PCE and CPI inflation elevated above the Fed’s 2% target through mid-2026, supporting a divided FOMC stance at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range and lifting market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike. However, July’s weak nonfarm payrolls and stable 4.1% unemployment have tempered near-term tightening expectations, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities of 43.5% for zero hikes versus 36% for one by year-end. Traders weigh sticky supply-driven price pressures and hawkish dissents against softer labor data and the risk that further cooling could justify a hold, with the September FOMC meeting serving as the next key catalyst for repricing the 2026 rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ভলিউম
$146,433শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East-related energy shocks have kept PCE and CPI inflation elevated above the Fed’s 2% target through mid-2026, supporting a divided FOMC stance at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds range and lifting market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike. However, July’s weak nonfarm payrolls and stable 4.1% unemployment have tempered near-term tightening expectations, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities of 43.5% for zero hikes versus 36% for one by year-end. Traders weigh sticky supply-driven price pressures and hawkish dissents against softer labor data and the risk that further cooling could justify a hold, with the September FOMC meeting serving as the next key catalyst for repricing the 2026 rate path.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা