Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6% has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 46% market-implied probability of zero rate hikes this year from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Persistent elevation above the 2% goal, resilient labor market conditions, and hawkish FOMC communications—including the June dot plot with nine participants favoring at least one 25 basis point increase—underpin the 31.5% odds of a single hike. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices earlier in the year shifted trader sentiment from anticipated cuts toward hikes, though moderating inflation readings have since narrowed that gap. The July CPI release on August 12 and September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,230 Vol.
46%
1 (25 bps)
$19,212 Vol.
32%
2 (50 bps)
$32,523 Vol.
12%
3 (75 bps)
$13,121 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,390 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6% has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 46% market-implied probability of zero rate hikes this year from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Persistent elevation above the 2% goal, resilient labor market conditions, and hawkish FOMC communications—including the June dot plot with nine participants favoring at least one 25 basis point increase—underpin the 31.5% odds of a single hike. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices earlier in the year shifted trader sentiment from anticipated cuts toward hikes, though moderating inflation readings have since narrowed that gap. The July CPI release on August 12 and September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
ভলিউম
$135,706শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6% has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 46% market-implied probability of zero rate hikes this year from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Persistent elevation above the 2% goal, resilient labor market conditions, and hawkish FOMC communications—including the June dot plot with nine participants favoring at least one 25 basis point increase—underpin the 31.5% odds of a single hike. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices earlier in the year shifted trader sentiment from anticipated cuts toward hikes, though moderating inflation readings have since narrowed that gap. The July CPI release on August 12 and September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ভলিউম
$135,706শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6% has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 46% market-implied probability of zero rate hikes this year from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Persistent elevation above the 2% goal, resilient labor market conditions, and hawkish FOMC communications—including the June dot plot with nine participants favoring at least one 25 basis point increase—underpin the 31.5% odds of a single hike. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices earlier in the year shifted trader sentiment from anticipated cuts toward hikes, though moderating inflation readings have since narrowed that gap. The July CPI release on August 12 and September FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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