Recent moderation in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 despite a divided 9-3 vote, citing persistent but improving price pressures and geopolitical factors such as elevated oil prices. Markets price in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, driven by above-target inflation and labor market resilience, while cuts remain low-probability outliers. Key upcoming catalysts include the July CPI release on August 12 and the September FOMC meeting, which will shape the policy path into October.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 6%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
$447,566 Vol.
$447,566 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
69%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 6%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
$447,566 Vol.
$447,566 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$99,899 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$97,884 Vol.
6%
No change
$102,363 Vol.
69%
25 bps increase
$106,228 Vol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$41,192 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 despite a divided 9-3 vote, citing persistent but improving price pressures and geopolitical factors such as elevated oil prices. Markets price in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, driven by above-target inflation and labor market resilience, while cuts remain low-probability outliers. Key upcoming catalysts include the July CPI release on August 12 and the September FOMC meeting, which will shape the policy path into October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ভলিউম
$447,566শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 despite a divided 9-3 vote, citing persistent but improving price pressures and geopolitical factors such as elevated oil prices. Markets price in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, driven by above-target inflation and labor market resilience, while cuts remain low-probability outliers. Key upcoming catalysts include the July CPI release on August 12 and the September FOMC meeting, which will shape the policy path into October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$447,566শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in U.S. inflation, with the June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 despite a divided 9-3 vote, citing persistent but improving price pressures and geopolitical factors such as elevated oil prices. Markets price in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, driven by above-target inflation and labor market resilience, while cuts remain low-probability outliers. Key upcoming catalysts include the July CPI release on August 12 and the September FOMC meeting, which will shape the policy path into October.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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