Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s September 16 press conference follows hotter-than-expected August CPI and core inflation prints that lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to around 85-90 percent. Warsh’s late-August Jackson Hole remarks set a high bar for holding steady, stating that policymakers need confidence underlying inflation is returning to the 2 percent target “clearly and at sufficient speed” or else “we have work to do,” while stressing reduced reliance on forward guidance and data over forecasts. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent and oil prices elevated amid geopolitical tensions, traders will parse his introductory statement and Q&A for signals on the inflation trajectory, the balance of risks, and any shift away from prior communication practices. The meeting also tests Warsh’s credibility against political pressure for lower rates.