Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures near 3.3%, alongside energy price risks from Middle East tensions, sustains expectations for continued internal divisions at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The July 29 decision’s 9-3 hawkish dissent—by Cleveland’s Hammack, Minneapolis’s Kashkari, and Dallas’s Logan favoring a 25 basis point hike—sets a high bar, making three dissents the leading outcome at 29% amid closely matched probabilities. Key swing factors include August labor and inflation releases that could either draw additional regional presidents into the hawkish bloc for four or more dissents or foster broader consensus around a hold if data moderates, especially with midterms approaching. Market-implied odds reflect real capital at risk assessing these near-term data risks against the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range.