Traders assign a 98% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s cautious stance amid firmer inflation data and resilient labor conditions. March CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a sharp energy surge, while core measures also ticked higher; April nonfarm payrolls added jobs and kept unemployment near 4.3% with steady wage growth. These releases reinforced the policy rate’s current 3.50%-3.75% range, consistent with the April FOMC statement and dot plot projections. Market pricing aligns with the view that any shift in the target range requires clearer disinflation or labor-market softening. Key upcoming releases, including May CPI and employment data, could still alter expectations if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed’s June meeting statement signals no change to the target rate
No change rises to 98%2%
The official FOMC statement after the June 16‑17 meeting confirmed that the upper bound of the target federal funds range remained unchanged, cementing the market’s final move to near‑certain no‑change pricing.
Fed releases pre‑meeting statement emphasizing data‑driven approach
No change rises to 98%2%
The Fed’s statement ahead of the June meeting stressed that policy would be guided by economic data, not political pressure, nudging the market further toward a No‑change outcome.
Fed’s June meeting minutes hint at a consensus to hold rates steady
No change rises to 98%2%
The released minutes confirmed that the Fed’s policymakers were aligned on a hold, cementing the No change contract at near‑certainty and pushing all cut‑related contracts to near zero.
Fed’s May meeting concludes with no rate change as inflation remains above target
No change rises to 98%2%
With inflation still above 2% and no clear labor‑market weakness, the Fed kept rates steady, cementing the No‑change outcome at near‑certainty.
Markets shrug off DOJ probe as Fed independence debate continues
No change rises to 98%2%
Despite ongoing DOJ investigations into Fed Chair Powell, markets remained confident in the Fed's independence and its economic-driven policy decisions. This sentiment contributed to the high market probability of no change in the June interest rate decision.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell
The closure of the DOJ investigation removed a major source of political risk, solidifying expectations that the Fed would maintain its current stance.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell due to lack of evidence
No change rises to 98%2%
The DOJ concluded its criminal investigation into Powell without charges, citing insufficient evidence. This resolution removed a major source of political uncertainty, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy at the June meeting.
Fed’s June meeting expected to hold rates steady as political pressure mounts
No change rises to 98%2%
Analysts cited growing political pressure from the White House and the Supreme Court case over Fed independence, leading the market to near‑certainly price in no change, with the No‑change contract reaching 98 % by early May.
Fed reiterates pause on rate adjustments after April meeting
No change rises to 98%2%
Fed’s post‑meeting statement reiterated a pause on rate adjustments, cementing the “No change” outcome as the market’s near‑certain view.
Fed’s Kevin Warsh nomination cleared by Senate committee
No change rises to 96%2%
With the investigation dropped, the Senate moved forward on Warsh’s confirmation, suggesting continuity in the Fed’s policy stance and bolstering the No‑change bet.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 96%5%
The high‑court hearing underscored the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, keeping markets wary of a potential rate‑cut push and sustaining the no‑change stance.
Inflation remains above target, supporting Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts
No change rises to 96%3%
Data showed inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the case for further rate cuts despite a slowing labor market. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming June meeting.
DOJ prosecutors attempt to access Fed building amid ongoing investigation
No change rises to 96%3%
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's headquarters construction site related to the ongoing investigation into the renovation project. Despite the legal scrutiny, the Fed maintained its stance on rate decisions based on economic conditions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change rises to 93%3%
The nomination signaled potential for a more dovish chair, but uncertainty over confirmation kept markets favoring the status‑quo, further boosting No‑change.
Fed signals likely to keep rates steady amid inflation and labor market concerns
No change rises to 95%2%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a preference to hold rates steady to assess economic conditions, balancing stubborn inflation with a slowing labor market. This cautious stance led markets to strongly favor the no change outcome for the June 2026 Fed decision.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair
25 bps increase jumps to 30%5%
The nomination suggested a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, briefly reviving interest in the 25‑bps increase contract before the market re‑evaluated the likelihood of a hold.
Justice Department ends criminal probe into Powell
No change rises to 94%3%
The DOJ’s decision to drop the investigation removed a major source of political pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would not feel compelled to cut rates before June.
Fed’s April meeting ends with unanimous decision to hold rates
No change surges to 90%27%
A consensus to keep the target range unchanged eliminated any remaining upside for rate‑cut bets, driving the No‑change price toward its peak.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged as Chair Powell emphasizes economic basis
No change rises to 93%4%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed Chair Powell signaled the Fed's intention to keep rates steady, focusing on economic data rather than political pressure amid ongoing investigations. This reassured markets, driving the probability of no change to near certainty.
Fed minutes show split over further rate cuts, many officials favor holding steady
No change surges to 62%16%
Released minutes from the March meeting revealed that most policymakers preferred to keep the policy rate unchanged, pushing the market further toward the no‑change outcome.
Fed holds rates steady at March meeting
No change jumps to 98%12%
The Fed’s March 16‑17 decision to hold rates steady confirmed market expectations, pushing the “No change” price to 98 % and collapsing odds of any move.
Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts
No change jumps to 96%6%
March minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants still see inflation as too high, causing the market to further consolidate on the No‑change outcome, moving its price from 90 % to 96 %.
Supreme Court hears arguments on Lisa Cook firing case
No change jumps to 91%5%
The high‑court hearing on whether Trump can fire Governor Cook added uncertainty about the Fed’s composition, leading markets to favor a status‑quo rate decision.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political interference
No change jumps to 63%8%
Powell’s public defense of the Fed’s independence reassured markets that policy would remain data‑driven, reinforcing expectations of no further change.
Central bankers issue statement backing Fed independence amid Trump‑Powell clash
No change jumps to 55%13%
Nine major central banks publicly supported Powell, reducing market fears of a politically‑driven rate cut and bolstering the no‑change odds.
Fed minutes show split over future rate cuts after strong inflation data
No change surges to 86%26%
Released minutes revealed a deep division among Fed officials, with many favoring a hold. The market interpreted the split as a signal that the June meeting would likely result in no change.
Fed releases statement that it will likely keep rates unchanged at June meeting
No change jumps to 98%6%
A formal Fed communication reaffirmed a hold stance, delivering a decisive boost to the No change contract and driving other contracts toward zero.
Fed’s Jan‑27‑28 meeting minutes show split vote on keeping rates steady
No change jumps to 55%12%
The minutes revealed a 10‑2 vote to hold rates, underscoring strong resistance to further cuts and pushing the No‑change price higher.
Fed signals neutral stance ahead of March meeting
No change surges to 86%18%
Ahead of the March meeting, the Fed reaffirmed a neutral stance, which caused the market’s “No change” price to climb toward 86 %.
U.S. and Israel attack Iran, sparking oil price surge
No change drops to 42%5%
The conflict raised global oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady rather than cut them.
Iran‑Hormuz conflict spikes oil prices, raising inflation worries
No change jumps to 60%13%
The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted energy prices, prompting analysts to expect the Fed to stay cautious and keep rates unchanged, pushing the No‑change price higher.
Treasury yields fall after Fed pauses cuts
No change rises to 51%4%
A dip in the 10‑year Treasury yield after the Fed announced a pause in rate cuts lowered long‑term borrowing costs, nudging the market toward the No‑change outcome.
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change dips to 46%2%
The high court’s decision to consider the Trump administration’s effort to remove Governor Cook signaled potential shifts in Fed board composition, reinforcing market expectations of a steady rate stance.
Powell says Fed will wait before any further rate cuts
No change drops to 38%6%
Powell reiterated that the Fed would “wait and see” on further cuts after three consecutive quarter‑point reductions, reinforcing expectations of a steady rate and supporting the “No change” outcome.
Fed minutes signal need for more inflation progress before another cut
No change jumps to 47%10%
Minutes from the February meeting emphasized that most officials wanted further inflation decline, reducing the probability of a cut and reinforcing the No‑change outcome.
Fed officials signal willingness to keep rates steady amid stubborn inflation
No change jumps to 90%5%
A statement from the Fed after its February meeting emphasized that inflation remains above target, reinforcing expectations of no change and pushing the No‑change price from 85 % to 90 %.
Economic data shows slowing hiring and persistent inflation
No change jumps to 37%6%
Reports indicated that hiring slowed in December 2025 despite Fed rate cuts, while inflation remained above target. This mixed economic data complicated the Fed's decision-making, supporting market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting to balance inflation control and labor market support.
Mortgage rates dip as market anticipates further Fed easing
25 bps increase jumps to 37%11%
A fall in 30‑year mortgage rates reflected expectations of additional cuts, briefly lifting the 25 bps increase price before the market reversed later in February.
Fed officials say inflation still above target, rates likely to hold
No change drops to 30%14%
Fed officials signaled that inflation remained above target and that rates would likely stay steady. The reassurance caused a sharp drop in the “25 bps decrease” probability, moving the market toward “No change”.
Justice Department subpoenas the Federal Reserve over Chairman Powell’s testimony
25 bps decrease jumps to 45%7%
The unprecedented subpoena heightened political pressure on the Fed, causing traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate‑cut, which briefly lifted the 25‑bps decrease contract before the market re‑asserted confidence in a hold.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 56%6%
The Supreme Court considered the legality of President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case seen as a test of the Fed's independence. The court's apparent inclination to allow Cook to remain reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain its current policy stance, supporting the no change outcome.
Trump names Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change drops to 45%5%
Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as his successor signaled a possible shift toward higher rates, causing the market to tilt away from “25 bps increase”.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 62%6%
The Supreme Court considered President Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as an attempt to influence Fed policy. The court's decision to allow Cook to remain temporarily underscored the judiciary's role in preserving Fed independence, which reassured markets and maintained the high probability of no rate change.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change rises to 47%2%
Bessent’s proposal to let the Board veto regional presidents increased speculation that the White House could gain more control over the Fed, reinforcing expectations of a hold‑steady policy.
Trump attacks Powell over building renovation and urges credit‑card rate cap
25 bps decrease rises to 54%4%
Trump’s public criticism of Powell’s handling of the Fed building renovation and calls for a 10 % credit‑card‑rate cap raised concerns about political pressure, nudging the market toward “25 bps decrease”.
Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change jumps to 50%5%
President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential changes in Fed leadership. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate policy, but his cautious stance and the divided Fed committee suggested limited immediate impact on rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.
Supreme Court appears inclined to keep Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid Trump firing attempt
No change surges to 87%24%
The Supreme Court showed skepticism toward President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the Fed's political independence. This legal development bolstered market confidence that the Fed's policy decisions would remain insulated from political interference, supporting the no change outcome.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could give the White House more leverage over rate decisions, weakening confidence in any rate‑cut scenario and further boosting No change.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid DOJ probe and political scrutiny
No change jumps to 63%11%
Ahead of the Fed meeting, analysts and Fed officials signaled that interest rates would likely remain unchanged despite the DOJ investigation into Powell and political tensions. The Fed emphasized economic data over politics, supporting market pricing for no rate change.
Top central bankers express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash
No change jumps to 52%5%
Central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This international backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy despite political pressures.
Central bankers worldwide express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell
No change jumps to 63%6%
In response to the DOJ investigation and political pressure, top central bankers globally issued a statement supporting Powell and emphasizing the importance of central bank independence, reinforcing market confidence in the Fed's autonomy and cautious approach to rate changes.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political pressure
No change jumps to 45%8%
Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. This public defense reassured markets about the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting the no change outcome in the market.
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
25 bps decrease drops to 38%12%
The pending legal battle raised concerns that the Fed could lose independence, increasing the perceived risk of a politically‑driven rate cut and pulling price support from the 25‑bps decrease contract.
Treasury Secretary Bessent pushes residency rule for Fed regional presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly urged a residency rule for regional Fed presidents, signaling a push for greater political control. Market participants reacted by moving away from the “25 bps increase” outcome toward “No change”.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ criminal probe as politically motivated
No change jumps to 57%9%
Following reports of a DOJ criminal investigation into Powell's testimony about Fed building renovations, Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the probe as a politically motivated attempt to influence Fed policy. This bolstered market confidence in Fed independence and reduced expectations for rate cuts.
Justice Department subpoenas Fed amid investigation of Powell’s testimony
No change drops to 36%5%
The DOJ’s criminal probe heightened political risk for the Fed, prompting markets to price in a more cautious stance and shifting sentiment toward no further cuts.
Powell calls DOJ subpoenas a pretext to force rate cuts
No change jumps to 94%5%
Powell released a video stating the DOJ subpoenas were “pretexts” to pressure the Fed to cut rates. The clarification reassured markets that rate policy would stay unchanged, boosting the “No change” price.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change dips to 47%1%
The Justice Department opened a probe into Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s building renovation, heightening political risk and prompting traders to favor a no‑change outcome.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 98%7%
The DOJ announced it was ending its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, removing a major political cloud. The news removed fears of a forced rate‑cut agenda, causing the market to swing dramatically to the “No change” bracket.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell rebukes DOJ criminal investigation as political pressure
No change jumps to 56%8%
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly condemned the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed's building renovations, calling it a pretext to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. This event highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair
No change surges to 85%23%
Trump’s nomination signaled a possible shift toward a more dovish Fed, prompting a further rise in the No‑change price (62 % → 85 %) as markets priced in political resistance to rate cuts.
Powell releases video condemning DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts
No change rises to 45%1%
Powell’s public video stating the subpoenas were meant to pressure the Fed to cut rates heightened market fears of political interference, further solidifying bets on no rate change.
January jobs report shows 130,000 hires, unemployment falls to 4.3%
25 bps decrease rises to 50%3%
Stronger‑than‑expected payrolls suggested a resilient labor market, increasing expectations that the Fed could consider another cut, briefly boosting the 25 bps decrease price.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change drops to 44%13%
The Justice Department announced a criminal probe into Powell’s testimony on Fed building renovations, raising concerns that political pressure could force the Fed to cut rates. Traders interpreted the move as a threat to Fed independence, boosting confidence in a No‑change outcome.
U.S. inflation rises in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased 2.8% YoY in November, signaling persistent price pressures and leading traders to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its December meeting.
Fed minutes reveal split over December rate cut
Released minutes showed two officials had voted to keep rates unchanged and one favored a half‑point cut, highlighting dissent and raising doubts about further easing.
U.S. inflation rises to 2.8% in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased to 2.8% YoY, signalling persistent price pressures and leading market participants to anticipate the Fed would keep rates unchanged.
Fed officials debate a third quarter‑point rate cut at December meeting
No change jumps to 84%13%
Minutes released showed a split vote (9‑3) on a quarter‑point cut, highlighting internal dissent and suggesting the cut could be fragile, which nudged the market toward No change.
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid labor market concerns
No change jumps to 48%7%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining above target. The decision was close, with a 9-3 vote, highlighting internal divisions and uncertainty about future moves. This supported market expectations for no further immediate cuts.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell
No change surges to 62%18%
The DOJ’s decision to drop its investigation removed a major political risk, leading traders to expect the Fed to maintain its current stance, which lifted the No‑change contract from 44 % to 62 % over the next week.
Fed minutes reveal narrow 9‑3 vote for a 25 bps cut on Dec 9‑10
No change jumps to 57%13%
The Fed’s December 2025 meeting minutes showed a 9‑3 vote to cut rates by a quarter‑point, highlighting internal splits. Traders interpreted the close vote as a signal that further cuts were uncertain, pushing the market sharply toward the “No change” outcome.
Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials
25 bps decrease jumps to 55%5%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was closely contested with dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This highlighted uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and influenced market expectations for the June 2026 meeting, initially supporting the possibility of rate cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points amid economic concerns
No change jumps to 48%7%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to about 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market and economic uncertainty. This move initially supported expectations for no further immediate cuts, influencing the market to price in no change for the June 2026 meeting.
Fed cuts rates by a quarter‑point at its December meeting
No change drops to 44%13%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.5‑3.75%, marking the third cut of the year and reinforcing expectations of continued easing.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps at December meeting
25 bps decrease drops to 41%9%
The FOMC voted 9‑3 to lower the target federal funds rate by a quarter point, the first cut of the year, which shifted market odds toward a 25‑bps decrease.
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