Recent August inflation of 1.7%—the lowest in 14 months and matching central bank REM survey expectations—has reinforced trader focus on Argentina’s disinflation path under fiscal austerity and peso stability. With September forecasts clustered near 1.8%, the near-even split between the 1.6–1.8% and 1.9–2.1% bins captures uncertainty over whether the trend extends or faces modest upside from regulated prices, seasonal food volatility, or exchange-rate pressures. Core inflation held at 1.8% last month while annual rates eased to 33.5%, and analysts’ 2026 projections remain near 30%. Market-implied odds thus embed skin-in-the-game consensus on continued moderation tempered by risks from thin reserves and weak growth.