Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader pricing for first place in the Federal District at 72% implied probability, reflecting DF-specific polling that shows him competitive with or ahead of Lula in the capital region despite Lula’s narrower national edge. Recent surveys, including a mid-August Real Time Big Data poll of 1,600 DF voters, found a technical tie in first-round intentions (Lula 36%, Flavio 35%) and a five-point edge for Flavio in a simulated runoff. The Federal District’s right-leaning electorate, combined with the Liberal Party’s July nomination of Flavio and the start of official campaigning, has reinforced his positioning. Other listed candidates remain in single digits or lower in both national and DF surveys, keeping their implied probabilities subdued.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District
Flavio Bolsonaro 73%
Lula 26%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$22,051 Vol.
$22,051 Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
73%
Lula
26%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 73%
Lula 26%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$22,051 Vol.
$22,051 Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
73%
Lula
26%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader pricing for first place in the Federal District at 72% implied probability, reflecting DF-specific polling that shows him competitive with or ahead of Lula in the capital region despite Lula’s narrower national edge. Recent surveys, including a mid-August Real Time Big Data poll of 1,600 DF voters, found a technical tie in first-round intentions (Lula 36%, Flavio 35%) and a five-point edge for Flavio in a simulated runoff. The Federal District’s right-leaning electorate, combined with the Liberal Party’s July nomination of Flavio and the start of official campaigning, has reinforced his positioning. Other listed candidates remain in single digits or lower in both national and DF surveys, keeping their implied probabilities subdued.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডসম্পর্কিত
ফ্লাভিও বোলসোনারো কি ২০২৬ ব্রাজিলিয়ান প্রেসিডেন্ট নির্বাচনের প্রথম দফায় দ্বিতীয় স্থানে শেষ করবেন?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা