Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire

Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.

Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq

8 plunges to 2%22%

For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.

Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon

Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.

10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon

A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.

Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks

5 dips to 23%4%

Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.

Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit

7 plunges to 24%15%

The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.

Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site

Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.

Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts

7 jumps to 39%11%

Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.

Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon

An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon

6 surges to 28%15%

Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.

Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child

5 drops to 23%8%

A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.

Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley

Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.

U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza

5 dips to 13%2%

Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.

Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon

5 jumps to 15%8%

An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.

Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure

5 plunges to 7%21%

Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.

Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon

5 surges to 28%22%

A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.

U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk

5 dips to 6%4%

Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.

Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians

5 dips to 7%2%

An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.

Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon

5 plunges to 9%38%

The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.

Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites

5 plunges to 10%37%

Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.