Persistent disagreements over Hamas disarmament and Israeli troop withdrawal continue to stall the transition to Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire, despite U.S. announcements in January 2026 launching the next stage of the Trump-brokered plan. Recent Cairo talks in April ended without tangible progress amid disputes on aid delivery and weapons handover, while a mid-May statement from the U.S.-led Board of Peace described full demilitarization as non-negotiable for any Israeli pullback or reconstruction efforts. Hamas has offered conditional openness to limited decommissioning but ties it to broader political concessions, whereas Israeli officials insist on complete removal of armed capabilities before advancing governance reforms or border openings. These entrenched positions, coupled with low-level ceasefire violations, shape trader assessments of timelines for Phase II implementation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$2,748,473 Vol.
৩০ জুন
12%
$2,748,473 Vol.
৩০ জুন
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 17, 2025, 5:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent disagreements over Hamas disarmament and Israeli troop withdrawal continue to stall the transition to Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire, despite U.S. announcements in January 2026 launching the next stage of the Trump-brokered plan. Recent Cairo talks in April ended without tangible progress amid disputes on aid delivery and weapons handover, while a mid-May statement from the U.S.-led Board of Peace described full demilitarization as non-negotiable for any Israeli pullback or reconstruction efforts. Hamas has offered conditional openness to limited decommissioning but ties it to broader political concessions, whereas Israeli officials insist on complete removal of armed capabilities before advancing governance reforms or border openings. These entrenched positions, coupled with low-level ceasefire violations, shape trader assessments of timelines for Phase II implementation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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