Ongoing restrictions and recent tanker attacks have anchored trader consensus around an 80.5% implied probability of no return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic in 2026. Visible commercial transits remain at roughly 3–7% of pre-February 2026 levels amid persistent mine threats, Iranian permit requirements, competing U.S.- and Iran-controlled corridors, and unresolved sanctions plus insurance issues. Attacks reported in late September and early October have reinforced risk premia, while partial oil flows via riskier routes or bypass pipelines have not restored standard AIS-visible volumes or commercial confidence. Key near-term catalysts include mine-clearance progress and any diplomatic steps addressing Tehran’s stated conditions, though current dynamics suggest normalization is unlikely before year-end.