Iran faces significant internal and external pressures amid its ongoing conflict with the United States, Israel, and allies that began in late February 2026, including widespread protests, factional tensions, and regime accusations of foreign-orchestrated plots. Iranian authorities have described recent unrest and mobilization efforts as responses to alleged U.S.- and Israel-backed coup attempts, with executions of individuals labeled as operatives and hardliner warnings about internal challenges to leadership. Traders assess low near-term probabilities for a confirmed coup attempt, reflecting the regime's security apparatus, historical resilience against upheaval, and the focus on diplomatic proposals to end hostilities rather than immediate domestic overthrow. Key variables include the trajectory of war negotiations, protest scale, and any elite defections or military fractures, with resolution likely tied to verifiable events such as successful seizures of power or official acknowledgments within specified timeframes.