Recent Houthi maritime blockade announcements and missile strikes targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes dropping from roughly 350 to the low-to-mid 260s before stabilizing amid ongoing risk premiums. Traders price the two central buckets at 40% each because daily commodity-ship counts have hovered near 30–40 amid selective rerouting, yet recent daily rebounds to 40 crossings introduce upside variance that could push the weekly tally toward 180–199. Key swing factors include any escalation in attacks, shifts in shadow-fleet activity, and potential de-escalation signals ahead of the week of August 17, leaving <160 and 200+ as lower-probability tails reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainty rather than a firm base-rate reversion.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
160-179 40%
180-199 40%
200+ 23%
<160 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 23, 2026
<160
9%
160-179
40%
180-199
40%
200+
23%
160-179 40%
180-199 40%
200+ 23%
<160 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$281 Vol.
9%
160-179
$0 Vol.
40%
180-199
$0 Vol.
40%
200+
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockade announcements and missile strikes targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes dropping from roughly 350 to the low-to-mid 260s before stabilizing amid ongoing risk premiums. Traders price the two central buckets at 40% each because daily commodity-ship counts have hovered near 30–40 amid selective rerouting, yet recent daily rebounds to 40 crossings introduce upside variance that could push the weekly tally toward 180–199. Key swing factors include any escalation in attacks, shifts in shadow-fleet activity, and potential de-escalation signals ahead of the week of August 17, leaving <160 and 200+ as lower-probability tails reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainty rather than a firm base-rate reversion.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
ভলিউম
$281শেষ তারিখ
Aug 23, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockade announcements and missile strikes targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes dropping from roughly 350 to the low-to-mid 260s before stabilizing amid ongoing risk premiums. Traders price the two central buckets at 40% each because daily commodity-ship counts have hovered near 30–40 amid selective rerouting, yet recent daily rebounds to 40 crossings introduce upside variance that could push the weekly tally toward 180–199. Key swing factors include any escalation in attacks, shifts in shadow-fleet activity, and potential de-escalation signals ahead of the week of August 17, leaving <160 and 200+ as lower-probability tails reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainty rather than a firm base-rate reversion.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$281শেষ তারিখ
Aug 23, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi maritime blockade announcements and missile strikes targeting Saudi-linked tankers have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes dropping from roughly 350 to the low-to-mid 260s before stabilizing amid ongoing risk premiums. Traders price the two central buckets at 40% each because daily commodity-ship counts have hovered near 30–40 amid selective rerouting, yet recent daily rebounds to 40 crossings introduce upside variance that could push the weekly tally toward 180–199. Key swing factors include any escalation in attacks, shifts in shadow-fleet activity, and potential de-escalation signals ahead of the week of August 17, leaving <160 and 200+ as lower-probability tails reflecting persistent geopolitical uncertainty rather than a firm base-rate reversion.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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