Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands such as Kharg, Larak, and Qeshm to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have emphasized capability degradation through airstrikes rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of Iranian control by late September 2026 stay below 5 percent, reflecting the practical barriers to rapid territorial shifts in the current dynamic of targeted strikes, sanctions, and naval posturing. No verified diplomatic, military, or legal developments in the past 30 days point to imminent changes in authority over this specific island.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$198,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
4%
$198,173 Vol.
September 30
$20,903 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands such as Kharg, Larak, and Qeshm to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have emphasized capability degradation through airstrikes rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of Iranian control by late September 2026 stay below 5 percent, reflecting the practical barriers to rapid territorial shifts in the current dynamic of targeted strikes, sanctions, and naval posturing. No verified diplomatic, military, or legal developments in the past 30 days point to imminent changes in authority over this specific island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ভলিউম
$198,173শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands such as Kharg, Larak, and Qeshm to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have emphasized capability degradation through airstrikes rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of Iranian control by late September 2026 stay below 5 percent, reflecting the practical barriers to rapid territorial shifts in the current dynamic of targeted strikes, sanctions, and naval posturing. No verified diplomatic, military, or legal developments in the past 30 days point to imminent changes in authority over this specific island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$198,173শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on nearby islands such as Kharg, Larak, and Qeshm to disrupt threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and related activities, yet these operations have emphasized capability degradation through airstrikes rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of Iranian control by late September 2026 stay below 5 percent, reflecting the practical barriers to rapid territorial shifts in the current dynamic of targeted strikes, sanctions, and naval posturing. No verified diplomatic, military, or legal developments in the past 30 days point to imminent changes in authority over this specific island.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা