**Recent polls position the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) at or below the 17% threshold ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl).** Aggregated survey data from institutes including INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap place their support in the 16–17% range through mid-August, with the most recent INSA poll (August 7–13) showing 16%. This follows earlier 2026 readings that have kept the party stable or slightly lower than its 18.4% result in the prior election, amid a tight four-way contest involving the Left (Die Linke), CDU, and AfD. Key drivers include limited momentum for the Greens’ top candidate Werner Graf, low public satisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD Senate, and voter fragmentation that favors other parties in hypothetical runoffs and coalition calculations. No major recent policy announcements or events have boosted Green support in the final weeks, while the broader polling trend—reflected in the wisdom of crowds via real-money markets—places their likely vote share under 17%. Uncertainties remain around turnout, late shifts, and the five-percent threshold dynamics for smaller parties, but current evidence supports the observed trader positioning on the under side.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডOver
39% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
Over
39% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polls position the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) at or below the 17% threshold ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl).** Aggregated survey data from institutes including INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap place their support in the 16–17% range through mid-August, with the most recent INSA poll (August 7–13) showing 16%. This follows earlier 2026 readings that have kept the party stable or slightly lower than its 18.4% result in the prior election, amid a tight four-way contest involving the Left (Die Linke), CDU, and AfD.
Key drivers include limited momentum for the Greens’ top candidate Werner Graf, low public satisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD Senate, and voter fragmentation that favors other parties in hypothetical runoffs and coalition calculations. No major recent policy announcements or events have boosted Green support in the final weeks, while the broader polling trend—reflected in the wisdom of crowds via real-money markets—places their likely vote share under 17%. Uncertainties remain around turnout, late shifts, and the five-percent threshold dynamics for smaller parties, but current evidence supports the observed trader positioning on the under side.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
ভলিউম
$52শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polls position the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) at or below the 17% threshold ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl).** Aggregated survey data from institutes including INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap place their support in the 16–17% range through mid-August, with the most recent INSA poll (August 7–13) showing 16%. This follows earlier 2026 readings that have kept the party stable or slightly lower than its 18.4% result in the prior election, amid a tight four-way contest involving the Left (Die Linke), CDU, and AfD.
Key drivers include limited momentum for the Greens’ top candidate Werner Graf, low public satisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD Senate, and voter fragmentation that favors other parties in hypothetical runoffs and coalition calculations. No major recent policy announcements or events have boosted Green support in the final weeks, while the broader polling trend—reflected in the wisdom of crowds via real-money markets—places their likely vote share under 17%. Uncertainties remain around turnout, late shifts, and the five-percent threshold dynamics for smaller parties, but current evidence supports the observed trader positioning on the under side.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ভলিউম
$52শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polls position the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) at or below the 17% threshold ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl).** Aggregated survey data from institutes including INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap place their support in the 16–17% range through mid-August, with the most recent INSA poll (August 7–13) showing 16%. This follows earlier 2026 readings that have kept the party stable or slightly lower than its 18.4% result in the prior election, amid a tight four-way contest involving the Left (Die Linke), CDU, and AfD. Key drivers include limited momentum for the Greens’ top candidate Werner Graf, low public satisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD Senate, and voter fragmentation that favors other parties in hypothetical runoffs and coalition calculations. No major recent policy announcements or events have boosted Green support in the final weeks, while the broader polling trend—reflected in the wisdom of crowds via real-money markets—places their likely vote share under 17%. Uncertainties remain around turnout, late shifts, and the five-percent threshold dynamics for smaller parties, but current evidence supports the observed trader positioning on the under side.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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