**The dominant 100% market-implied odds for a 6.1-or-greater maximum magnitude on October 13, 2026, rest on verified USGS and multi-agency seismic data showing two M6.8 and M6.7 events along the Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge that day, with additional M6.0 activity near Papua New Guinea.** These shallow (∼10 km) mid-ocean ridge quakes, recorded across global networks with consistent moment-magnitude solutions, far exceed typical daily maxima and align with the resolution threshold. Historical Mid-Atlantic Ridge seismicity rarely produces clusters this energetic within a 24-hour window, reinforcing trader consensus. Downward revisions to below 6.1 remain improbable given cross-network agreement, though final catalog updates or aftershock reclassification could theoretically narrow the margin if new phase data emerge before official closure.