Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$100,260 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1550
19%
↑ 1600
13%
↑ 1650
10%
↑ 1700
9%
$100,260 Vol.
↑ 1550
$33,279 Vol.
19%
↑ 1600
$20,526 Vol.
13%
↑ 1650
$7,603 Vol.
10%
↑ 1700
$5,097 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
ভলিউম
$100,260শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
ভলিউম
$100,260শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা