**Persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and energy price shocks, combined with a more resilient euro area economy, have positioned a modest 25 basis point rate increase by December 2026 as the leading trader consensus at 60%.** The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September 2026 following an earlier June hike, responding to headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026 in the latest staff forecasts—well above the 2% target—with energy costs driving the upside. Recent analyst surveys and bank outlooks, including Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank assessments around mid-September, point to a likely final 25 bp tightening at the December meeting to reach 2.75%, reflecting upside risks to inflation from prolonged geopolitical tensions and contained but present second-round effects. Growth projections were revised higher to 0.9% for 2026 amid stronger domestic demand and public investment, reducing the case for easing while supporting a cautious hiking path. No-change (28.5%) and larger moves remain secondary options, as the Governing Council continues to emphasize data dependence without pre-committing to a terminal rate.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড25 bps increase 60%
No change 29%
50+ bps increase 6.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.9%
$14,083 Vol.
$14,083 Vol.
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
29%
25 bps increase
60%
50+ bps increase
6%
25 bps increase 60%
No change 29%
50+ bps increase 6.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.9%
$14,083 Vol.
$14,083 Vol.
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,439 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$1,228 Vol.
8%
No change
$2,707 Vol.
29%
25 bps increase
$7,353 Vol.
60%
50+ bps increase
$1,357 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and energy price shocks, combined with a more resilient euro area economy, have positioned a modest 25 basis point rate increase by December 2026 as the leading trader consensus at 60%.**
The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September 2026 following an earlier June hike, responding to headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026 in the latest staff forecasts—well above the 2% target—with energy costs driving the upside. Recent analyst surveys and bank outlooks, including Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank assessments around mid-September, point to a likely final 25 bp tightening at the December meeting to reach 2.75%, reflecting upside risks to inflation from prolonged geopolitical tensions and contained but present second-round effects.
Growth projections were revised higher to 0.9% for 2026 amid stronger domestic demand and public investment, reducing the case for easing while supporting a cautious hiking path. No-change (28.5%) and larger moves remain secondary options, as the Governing Council continues to emphasize data dependence without pre-committing to a terminal rate.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
ভলিউম
$14,083শেষ তারিখ
Dec 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and energy price shocks, combined with a more resilient euro area economy, have positioned a modest 25 basis point rate increase by December 2026 as the leading trader consensus at 60%.**
The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September 2026 following an earlier June hike, responding to headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026 in the latest staff forecasts—well above the 2% target—with energy costs driving the upside. Recent analyst surveys and bank outlooks, including Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank assessments around mid-September, point to a likely final 25 bp tightening at the December meeting to reach 2.75%, reflecting upside risks to inflation from prolonged geopolitical tensions and contained but present second-round effects.
Growth projections were revised higher to 0.9% for 2026 amid stronger domestic demand and public investment, reducing the case for easing while supporting a cautious hiking path. No-change (28.5%) and larger moves remain secondary options, as the Governing Council continues to emphasize data dependence without pre-committing to a terminal rate.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$14,083শেষ তারিখ
Dec 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and energy price shocks, combined with a more resilient euro area economy, have positioned a modest 25 basis point rate increase by December 2026 as the leading trader consensus at 60%.** The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September 2026 following an earlier June hike, responding to headline inflation projected at 3.0% for 2026 in the latest staff forecasts—well above the 2% target—with energy costs driving the upside. Recent analyst surveys and bank outlooks, including Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank assessments around mid-September, point to a likely final 25 bp tightening at the December meeting to reach 2.75%, reflecting upside risks to inflation from prolonged geopolitical tensions and contained but present second-round effects. Growth projections were revised higher to 0.9% for 2026 amid stronger domestic demand and public investment, reducing the case for easing while supporting a cautious hiking path. No-change (28.5%) and larger moves remain secondary options, as the Governing Council continues to emphasize data dependence without pre-committing to a terminal rate.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা