**Tom Pelphrey leads the market for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series with a 46.5% implied probability, driven by critical praise for his intense, single-episode turn as Robbie Prendergrast in HBO’s “Task.”** Trader consensus reflects his narrative as a long-overlooked performer earning his first major nomination in this category, bolstered by the show’s six total nods and strong precursor attention despite its exclusion from the drama series race. “The Pitt” dominates with 25 nominations overall and fields three contenders—Patrick Ball at 35%, Shawn Hatosy at 12.3%, and Gerran Howell at 0.5%—creating potential vote splitting among its ensemble that could benefit outsiders like Pelphrey. Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”) holds steady at 5.3% on veteran appeal, while Jack Lowden (“Slow Horses”) and Carlos-Manuel Vesga (“Pluribus”) trail at 4% and 2%. Final-round voting runs through late August ahead of the September 14 ceremony, where guild and critics’ momentum will shape the outcome.