**xAI’s rapid Grok iteration and Elon Musk’s recent roadmap comments form the core driver of trader views on whether any Grok model reaches higher HLE thresholds by year-end.** As of mid-September 2026, verified leaderboard results show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 at roughly 42.7–42.9% on the expert-authored 2,500-question Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (65%) and Opus 5 (64.7%). xAI has shipped frequent updates since the original Grok 4, with Grok 4.6 arriving in August and 4.7 described by Musk as roughly Opus 5.0 parity (with multimodal gaps to close). He positioned Grok 4.8 as a noticeable step forward and 4.9 potentially class-leading. These releases, combined with industry-wide gains from larger scale, reasoning post-training, and tool use, create the main swing factors. Key catalysts ahead include any 4.7 or 4.8 launch with official HLE numbers, potential tool-augmented or agentic evaluations, and further frontier advances from competing labs before the December 31 resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$118,567 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
78%
50%+
51%
55%+
31%
60%+
19%
65%+
5%
$118,567 Vol.
45%+
$44,141 Vol.
78%
50%+
$24,577 Vol.
51%
55%+
$29,262 Vol.
31%
60%+
$17,653 Vol.
19%
65%+
$2,934 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**xAI’s rapid Grok iteration and Elon Musk’s recent roadmap comments form the core driver of trader views on whether any Grok model reaches higher HLE thresholds by year-end.** As of mid-September 2026, verified leaderboard results show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 at roughly 42.7–42.9% on the expert-authored 2,500-question Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (65%) and Opus 5 (64.7%). xAI has shipped frequent updates since the original Grok 4, with Grok 4.6 arriving in August and 4.7 described by Musk as roughly Opus 5.0 parity (with multimodal gaps to close). He positioned Grok 4.8 as a noticeable step forward and 4.9 potentially class-leading. These releases, combined with industry-wide gains from larger scale, reasoning post-training, and tool use, create the main swing factors. Key catalysts ahead include any 4.7 or 4.8 launch with official HLE numbers, potential tool-augmented or agentic evaluations, and further frontier advances from competing labs before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
ভলিউম
$118,567শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://agi.safe.ai/রেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**xAI’s rapid Grok iteration and Elon Musk’s recent roadmap comments form the core driver of trader views on whether any Grok model reaches higher HLE thresholds by year-end.** As of mid-September 2026, verified leaderboard results show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 at roughly 42.7–42.9% on the expert-authored 2,500-question Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (65%) and Opus 5 (64.7%). xAI has shipped frequent updates since the original Grok 4, with Grok 4.6 arriving in August and 4.7 described by Musk as roughly Opus 5.0 parity (with multimodal gaps to close). He positioned Grok 4.8 as a noticeable step forward and 4.9 potentially class-leading. These releases, combined with industry-wide gains from larger scale, reasoning post-training, and tool use, create the main swing factors. Key catalysts ahead include any 4.7 or 4.8 launch with official HLE numbers, potential tool-augmented or agentic evaluations, and further frontier advances from competing labs before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
ভলিউম
$118,567শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://agi.safe.ai/রেজলভার
0x65070BE91...**xAI’s rapid Grok iteration and Elon Musk’s recent roadmap comments form the core driver of trader views on whether any Grok model reaches higher HLE thresholds by year-end.** As of mid-September 2026, verified leaderboard results show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 at roughly 42.7–42.9% on the expert-authored 2,500-question Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (65%) and Opus 5 (64.7%). xAI has shipped frequent updates since the original Grok 4, with Grok 4.6 arriving in August and 4.7 described by Musk as roughly Opus 5.0 parity (with multimodal gaps to close). He positioned Grok 4.8 as a noticeable step forward and 4.9 potentially class-leading. These releases, combined with industry-wide gains from larger scale, reasoning post-training, and tool use, create the main swing factors. Key catalysts ahead include any 4.7 or 4.8 launch with official HLE numbers, potential tool-augmented or agentic evaluations, and further frontier advances from competing labs before the December 31 resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা