Current forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models points to a daytime high of 20–22 °C in Beijing on October 4 under clear to partly cloudy skies and northwest winds of 10–20 km/h. Cool, dry air advection from the north, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover, limits daytime warming despite October’s climatological average high near 22.5 °C. Recent days saw highs of 21–23 °C before the shift, and model runs show only minor differences in peak timing and wind mixing that separate a 21 °C versus 22 °C outcome. No precipitation or frontal systems are expected, keeping the market-implied odds tightly balanced between these two leading results while lower or higher thresholds remain remote.