Recent numerical weather prediction models indicate a daily maximum near 16–17°C for Buenos Aires on July 14, consistent with the market’s near-even weighting between those two outcomes and the lower probability assigned to 15°C or 18°C. July climatology shows an average high of roughly 15°C, but short-term model runs reflect modest warm advection and reduced cloud cover that support readings 1–2°C above the seasonal baseline. Ensemble spread remains modest at this 24–48-hour lead time, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any passing trough and the accuracy of local observations from official Argentine meteorological stations. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours will likely narrow the range further before markets close.