Traders see 32–33°C as the most likely peak for Chengdu on August 3 because short-range models show persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate humidity limiting daytime heating in the Sichuan Basin. Recent forecasts from agencies indicate highs near 32–35°C under overcast skies with light winds and a 60–90% chance of precipitation, which typically caps temperatures a few degrees below clear-sky potential. Historical August averages hover around 31–32°C, and the current pattern of monsoon moisture plus frequent thundershowers aligns with this range rather than extreme heat. With the market closely split between 32°C and 33°C, uncertainty centers on exact timing of any rain and cloud thickness; updated model runs or clearer skies could shift odds toward 34°C or higher, while heavier showers would favor the lower side.