High pressure building over southern England is driving the current market tilt toward 30–31°C as London’s August 3 maximum, with the Met Office forecasting 31°C under mostly sunny conditions. Warm-air advection from the continent, combined with light winds and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, though small variations in timing or residual moisture could cap readings near 29°C or allow brief pushes toward 32°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around these values, reflecting typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects. Traders are monitoring the next Met Office and ECMWF model cycles for any shift in the ridge’s strength ahead of resolution.